FXUS64 KLCH 151737 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1237 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag for central Louisiana and interior southeast Texas on Friday. Fire danger statement for the rest of the region. - Fire weather watch on Saturday for the entire CWA. - High winds Friday and Saturday will result in Wind Advisories as well as hazardous sea conditions. Gale conditions possible late Friday. - Low Water possible for southeast Texas Friday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The rest of today will be fairly calm with light south to southeast winds. This will be the last muggy day, as a cold front will sweep across the region late tonight and into the early morning on Friday. With the front will come much cooler weather, with lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s. Friday and Saturday will be the most impactful days of the forecast with wind and fire weather hazards across the region. Starting on Friday, with the passage of the cold front early in the morning, wind speeds will be elevated across the region with winds between 15 and 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph. These winds will quickly reach the coast, where they will increase with offshore winds approaching Gale strength by Friday night. A Red Flag Warning is in place for the northern counties and parishes in the CWA. The biggest limiting factor on Friday will be a mismatch between the lowest RH and highest wind gusts as the driest air moves in, with the driest air making its way into our area after sunset. One thing that we will need to watch is the possibility for dry air at 850 mb to be mixed down with the gusty winds. This would lead to RH values plummeting early and could extend the elevated fire risk farther south than expected on Friday. The SPC has highlighted most of north and central Louisiana in an elevated fire risk for Friday and most of the state on Saturday. Taking a closer look on Saturday, the dry air will be firmly in place, and after sunrise north winds will be sustained between 15 and 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Another Fire Weather Watch is in place area-wide for Saturday, and a Red Flag Warning looks likely for most of the area. With the ongoing drought, KBDI values are above 700. Fuels are also dry, with 10-hour fuels showing RH values below 20%. As stated in the previous AFD, it is imperative not to burn anything for the next several days. Pay attention to any local burn bans and report fires to local authorities. As we go into next week, high pressure on the Eastern Seaboard will give us a primarily easterly wind, while a ridge building aloft will keep our dry streak going. Temperatures will slowly rise next week, getting back into the low 90s or high 80s by midweek. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions will continue for most of the forecast period. Late at night, we could see patchy MVFR fog, but a frontal passage around 6 to 7 AM will quickly wipe out any fog. With the frontal passage, winds will shift from south to north with gusty winds up to 30 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A cold front passage early Friday morning will lead to strong offshore winds, and a Gale Watch is in place for nearshore and outer coastal waters. Winds will weaken slightly overnight Friday before picking back up on Saturday. Sustained winds will be over 30 knots with frequent gusts up to 45 knots possible. Waves will quickly respond to the winds, building to 11 feet in the outer coastal waters and up to 5 feet in the nearshore waters. Sabine Pass and Texas Pass both approachlow water advisory levels on Friday and Saturday during low tide, but it does not look like they will reach the -1.0 feet below MLLW necessary for an advisory. At the start of the week, conditions will begin to improve with winds falling below 20 knots for nearshore waters by Sunday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The SPC has highlighted central Louisiana for an elevated fire risk on Friday and most of the state on Saturday. As a cold front sweeps across the area, strong north winds will lead to plummeting dew points, with minRH through the weekend below 30%. Friday night moisture recovery will be lacking, with maxRH only around 50 to 60%. A Red Flag Warning is in place for central Louisiana with a fire danger statement for the rest of the CWA. Saturday is the more concerning of the two days, with low RH values lining up with 20-foot winds near 15 mph; gusts will be frequent and higher. No rain is expected with this front, and the average KBDI value is over 700 across much of the region. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ027>030. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154- 241>243-252>254. Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ029- 032-033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ180-259-260. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616. Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ515- 516-615-616. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ430-432-435-436. Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14 AVIATION...14