FXUS64 KLCH 150621 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 121 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire weather danger Friday and Saturday with anomalously dry and windy conditions each day. Red Flag Watch on Friday; another Saturday. - Record to near record heat is forecast across central and south central Louisiana again today. - High winds Friday and Saturday will result in Wind Advisories as well as hazardous sea conditions. Gale conditions possible late Saturday. - Low Water possible for southeast Texas Friday. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Southerly winds developing ahead of the late-week frontal system has allowed Gulf moisture to seep inland beneath a deeply dry airmass. The combination of high pressure overtop the region and dry airmass aloft has given this sfc layer the conditions needed to efficiently cool and so radiational fog is beginning to develop. Already some of our obs are seeing patches of dense fog. The coastal breeze has kept visibilities at bay along and south of I10 but as we move towards early morning and winds diminish to calm, it's likely that we'll see a sudden onset of at least widespread patches of dense fog. Thus, a dense fog advisory has been issued for interior southwest Louisiana until 9 AM. Not much to discuss for Thursday's forecast... High pressure diminishing with breezy southerlies off the Gulf bringing about increasing sfc humidity. Highs in the upper 80s, low 90s. Perhaps a shower may squeak out this afternoon or evening with falling heights and in the moist layer. Not expected but possible for areas west of LA 171. Now for the fun part of the forecast. Things get kicked off Thursday with upper jet max strengthening over the eastern Rockies. This jet feature kicks aforementioned sfc low sitting over north TX into the upper midwest. This enhancement to the polar jet then pulls an upper low out of south Canada. Ultimately these two features phasing is what will cause such a sharp frontal intrusion on Friday. A cold front then crashes southward on Friday. Prefrontal winds Friday AM will establish a north vector and by 9 AM, inland areas will already see winds 15 to 20 MPH with higher gusts. These winds will spread southeast rapidly, reaching coastal communities before lunch. Winds will only increase thru the afternoon and will remain elevated through Saturday evening. Peak speeds of 20 to 30 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH are expected Friday and Saturday afternoons. There may be a slightly lower wind overnight into Saturday but it won't be much lower. Wind advisories will be needed and may come as early as Friday morning to cover the period. The strong north winds will usher colder and drier conditions and minimum RH values 20 to 35 can be expected Friday and Saturday. Combined with the strong winds, fire conditions will be very elevated. A fire weather watch is in effect for Friday; another needed Saturday. It is imperative not to burn anytime before or during this period as winds will easily re-light coals. Abide by local burn bans and if you see a fire/smoke, report it to local authorities. High temps will warm into the 80s ahead of the front and will struggle to reach the low 70s Saturday. Expect the 50s by Saturday morning and 40s Sunday morning. 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Areas are beginning to see some radiational fog develop. Winds in coastal areas have remained slightly elevated causing fog to remain more on the ground than widespread and dense. However, as winds become nearly calm prior to sunrise, areas of dense fog may sock in for Louisiana terminals. Winds increase and conditions improve with sunrise. A frontal system developing in the central Plains will result in southeasterly winds Thursday with a prevailing breeze 8 to 12 knots. A few rogue gusts less than 20 knots cannot be ruled out. && .MARINE... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Breezy onshore winds will persist into late Thursday. A crashing cold front will near the region after midnight Friday. Its influence will turn coastal winds to the north prior to sunrise, before the much stronger winds arrive starting mid morning. Northerly winds will only increase throughout Friday with a peak intensity between Friday evening and Saturday morning. A brief period of conditions hazardous to small craft will occur from Friday morning until early afternoon. Thereafter, Gale-force conditions are expected to develop during overnight hours. Frequent gusts 40 to 45 knots will be possible with seas growing to 4 to 11 feet through midday Saturday. Low Water conditions will be possible at Sabine Pass Friday at low tide time. All other waterways appear to be oriented as to not see mass pushout. Continue to monitor. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Areas of patchy to dense fog will be ongoing at sunrise Thursday morning. After sunrise, somewhat breezy southerly winds will establish ahead of a developing frontal system in the Plains. RH minimums will range 30 to 50 percent during afternoon hours with 20 ft winds 5 to 8 knots. The frontal system then crashes through the region on Friday bringing about a roughly 48 hour period of elevated fire concerns. Northerly winds at sunrise will see a rapid increase in speeds from 7 AM Friday with interior regions seeing 15 MPH sustained by 9 AM and coastal areas by roughly 12PM. Winds peak and will remain elevated from Friday mid day through Saturday evening. Strong north winds will also bring about RH minimums 25 to 35 percent Friday and 20 to 30 percent Saturday. A fire weather watch is in effect Friday for low humidity combined and high winds. Another watch will be needed Saturday. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Dense Fog Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT this morning for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-141>143-152>154-241>243-253-254. Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for LAZ027>033-044-045-141>143. TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for TXZ180-201-259>262. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11 AVIATION...11