FXUS63 KLBF 200555
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1255 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances increase Wednesday and then again Thursday night
  into Friday. Some decent rainfall amounts, possibly over one-
  half inch are possible in spots.

- A warming trend is then expected through the weekend. Highs
  will climb from the 70s Sunday into the 80s Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

High pressure will settle southward across Minnesota and Iowa 
tonight into Wednesday morning. Aloft, southwest flow will be 
dominate across the region ahead of a shortwave crossing the 
Intermountain West. Have issued a frost advisory for portions of 
north central Nebraska late tonight till just after sunrise 
Wednesday morning. This area will be the last to see an increase in 
cloudiness as the shortwave approaches the area late tonight. The 
increase in cloud should keep the rest of the area in the mid to 
upper 30s and frost free. 

As mentioned, clouds will increase, and will be a cloudy day 
Wednesday. Rain chances will also be on the increase. As the 
shortwave trough approaches from the west, mid-level WAA will be on 
the increase. An area of mid-level FGEN also develops, and should 
see a northeast to southwest band of light to perhaps briefly 
moderate rain develop in the morning and then begin to decrease by 
later in the afternoon as the FGEN weakens. As for amounts, fairly 
high probabilities of one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch. This 
would most favor southwest Nebraska. 

Skies clear some as the shortwave moves east of the area Wednesday 
night. At this time, looks like temperatures will remain above any 
frost potential.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

The next system is already on the horizon Thursday through Friday. 
The probability of seeing some decent rainfall amounts is on the 
increase. This is supported by both the 19/12Z NAM and ECMWF which 
dig a negatively tilted trough farther southward into Colorado 
Thursday night, and then pivots northeastward across the Central 
Plains Friday. Looking at the various ensemble suites, confidence is 
high in much of the area receiving at least one-quarter of an inch, 
with some locations likely to exceed one-half inch of rainfall. 

System weakens across the area Saturday with a subtle upper trough 
still located over the area. Lingering cloud cover and a few 
isolated showers will start the Memorial Day weekend. Ridging aloft 
then builds across the area Sunday into Monday with a couple of very 
nice days expected Sunday into Monday. In fact, will become quite 
warm by Monday, as highs climb from the lower 80s Sunday and into 
mid and upper 80s Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the first half of the period
with degraded conditions for late morning Wednesday.

Mid and high level clouds continue to stream in to southwest
Nebraska but should pose little if any impact initially. Through
the night, CIGs should lower as a disturbance approaches from
the west. This should lead to increasing precipitation chances
and MVFR CIGs. Leaned on HREF guidance for timing into LBF
terminal which favors mid to late morning. Activity should
remain light enough intensity to preclude more significant
impacts. Expect precipitation to depart by late afternoon with a
return to VFR conditions likely.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for NEZ006-007-009-
010-028-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...NMJ