FXUS63 KJKL 240255 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1055 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Noticeably less humid air will continue to prevail early this week, with below normal morning lows. - Temperatures and humidity will increase Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the next cold front, leading to a potential for thunderstorms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1055 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Only minor tweaks were made again for sky cover overnight and near term temperatures based on obs. UPDATE Issued at 754 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Have made minor adjustments in the sky forecast for a patch of cirrus streaming through this evening, and for temps for an initial quick drop in eastern valley readings early this evening. The update has little impact on the night as a whole. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 419 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Largely stacked low pressure just north of the Great Lakes late today will weaken and lift northeast through Monday night. Meanwhile, surface high pressure currently over the mid Mississippi Valley will drift to the Ohio Valley. As this happens, our current inflow of cooler and drier low level air around the high will ease and our upper level flow upstream will flatten. Even though cool/dry advection will taper off, air mass modification will hold off during the short term, which will afford us below normal lows both nights. The flattening upper level flow may allow some high clouds to spill through upstream ridging Monday night, but any clouds in our skies shouldn't have much impact on our temperatures. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 323 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 The long term period begins Tuesday with a subtropical ridge and closed 500 mb high ranging from 594-597 dm centered over the Four Corners region. Elsewhere, an upper-level trough is modeled across the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and New England. Across eastern Kentucky, Tuesday will be fair and quiet with dew points in the 50s, and temperatures in the mid 80s feeling a bit less humid compared to previous days. Overnight, light winds and clear skies may aid in patchy valley fog developing in typical favored river valley locations. With valleys possibly decoupling at night, temperatures in the valleys may cool into the mid to upper 50s, while ridgetops cool into the upper 50s to low 60s, Tuesday night. An upper low modeled over southern Manitoba will progress southeast overnight, ending up in the Upper Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. A surface low will also form in the Great Lakes vicinity. Some high and mid-level clouds may work into the area through Wednesday in advance of the approaching system. By Wednesday evening, as a surface cold front extends from the Great Lakes southwestward through the Ohio Valley and Ozarks, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Wednesday night into Thursday, peaking Thursday ahead of the frontal passage. By Friday, the cold front is expected to have passed east of the Commonwealth, with the trough axis shifting east of the forecast area Friday into Saturday, leaving broad troughing across the eastern US. Lingering moisture along the departing trough may support isolated shower and storm chances Friday afternoon along the VA/KY border. Model and ensemble agreement is poor by next weekend. However, deterministic guidance diverges, with one scenario depicting a shortwave progressing through the Central Plains into portions of the Mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys by Saturday evening into Sunday, which would lead to another round of showers and storms across the area on Sunday. Conversely, an alternate scenario tracks the shortwave farther north into the Ohio Valley. NBM has maintained low-end isolated PoPs for Sunday (15-20%) to reflect this low-confidence scenario. Temperatures should remain slightly above normal for this time of year, in the mid to upper 80s. The CPC 6-10 day outlook supports this thinking. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Valley fog will develop and spread overnight and early Monday. It will bring localized IFR or worse conditions, probably affecting KLOZ and KSME TAF sites around dawn. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...HAL