FXUS63 KJKL 230039 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 839 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front will bring a possibility of showers and thunderstorms to the area this evening. - Some storms could produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts and hail this evening. - Noticeably cooler and less humid air will arrive behind the cold front to start the new week with dry weather. && .UPDATE... Issued at 838 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 Precip has tapered off with the exception of the far southern and southeaster portions of the forecast area, where there is still a threat of severe weather for a short time yet. The forecast has been updated for the latest trends on radar. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 250 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 At 1845Z, satellite shows a mix of low and mid level clouds. Showers and storms have initiated to the north along a weak disturbance extending from the southern shores of Lake Erie south to the Kentucky-West Virginia line. A cold front approaches eastern Kentucky from the northwest this afternoon, driven by shortwave energy and a deepening long wave upper level trough. As daytime heating aids destabilization, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected from mid-afternoon into early evening. Looking at the 12Z RAP this evening, a representative sounding near JKL depicted an environment with strong surface buoyancy (2400 J/kg), high DCAPE (1000-1100 J/kg), and steep low-level lapse rates (0-3 km lapse rate of 7.2 deg C/km). In addition, 0-6 km bulk shear at 40 kts along with MUCAPE slightly above 2500 J/kg this will help sustain organized updrafts. With BRN shear at 18 m2/s2, the environment as a whole favors multicell clusters with some supercellular elements. High DCAPE along with steep 0-3 km lapse rates, 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear, and the approaching cold front will support damaging gusts of most likely 45-60 mph. Hail will be a secondary hazard, though several limiting factors--such as anemic updrafts from poor mid-level lapse rates (6 deg C/km) and an elevated freezing level (13,000 feet)--may cause substantial melting before reaching the ground. The hodograph remains generally straight up to 200-300 mb (9 km) followed by a directional shift to the NNW, which could eject hail embryos aloft, further limiting hail size. Hail will be isolated and could reach quarter size, but will likely remain smaller. SPC has placed all but Wayne County in a Slight Risk for severe weather. The shortwave progresses east of the CWA later this evening, leading to clearing skies and light winds. Fog should form overnight, with valleys and locations that receive rain favored for dense fog. High pressure builds into the area from the Upper Midwest on Sunday, bringing a mix of sun and clouds along with cooler weather. Dew points dropping into the mid 50s to low 60s will make conditions feel much more comfortable. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 457 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 The long-term period opens with quiet weather Monday morning. The 22/12z model suite analysis shows mean troughing in place across the eastern CONUS around a parent ~558 dam low spinning near/over the Ottawa Valley. A smaller upstream closed ~570 dam low is transiting from southern Alberta into Saskatchewan. Meanwhile, an ~596 dam upper level high is centered near/over New Mexico. Translating down to the surface, an ~1005 mb surface low is nearly vertically stacked under the parent low between James Bay and Lake Ontario. Its cold front sweeps south-southeastward along the Carolina coast and then arcs southwest to west through the Gulf Coast states before extending back northwestward into the central Plains. Cool Canadian high pressure, cradled in the arc of the cold front, extends from northwestern Ontario to over the Commonwealth. Farther upstream, an ~1005 mb surface low is passing over southern Saskatchewan and dragging a trailing cold front through the Northern Rockies and Great Basin. For Monday through Tuesday, heights will gradually rise over the Ohio Valley as the first upper-level trough and its parent low shift away to the northeast and surface high pressure settles southeast, cresting over eastern Kentucky with PWATs close to 0.75 inches. With time, a warm front will try to ease back northward toward the Commonwealth, allowing PWATs to recover back toward 1.5 inches by late Wednesday. However, heights will fall slightly again mid- to late week as the aforementioned closed upper low over the Canadian Prairies digs southeast, opens, and reinforces troughing over the eastern CONUS for the remainder of the work week. This will support the next area of low pressure tracking into eastern Canada while its trailing cold front slides southward into the Ohio Valley Thursday into Friday. Drier weather may follow a second cold front heading into next weekend. In sensible weather terms, look for fair and cool weather through Tuesday night, with lows ranging in the 50s to near 60F and highs in the lower to mid 80s. Fog is likely in the mainstem river valleys late each night through mid-morning. Low to medium precipitation chances in the form of diurnally modulated showers and thunderstorms return on Wednesday and persist through Friday as the first cold front works through the region, before trending drier by Saturday. Look for highs ranging mainly in the mid 80s from Wednesday onward, while nighttime lows moderate into the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 A cold front and disturbance will approach during peak heating and result in isolated to scattered convection between about 18Z and 03Z. Some of the storms could contain strong to damaging wind gusts and some gusts in the 30 to 40KT range if not locally higher are not out of the question. PROB30 groups were included for a few hours at all sites for the potential for thunder on station for a brief period. Any convection could bring brief reductions to IFR if not lower. Winds will generally remain WSW to W at 5 to 10KT between 18Z and 00Z. Winds will trend to the northwest behind the front between 00Z and 06Z and slacken. Some fog development is favored after 06Z and IFR or lower reductions for areas mainly south of KSYM and KIOB are possible per guidance as high pressure builds in behind the front. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GINNICK LONG TERM...GEERTSON AVIATION...GINNICK/JP