FXUS63 KJKL 152054 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 454 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers remain possible at times into Friday tonight. - Much cooler weather arrives for the weekend - the coldest we have experienced so far this autumn. This poses a risk for frost on Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 445 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026 Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered off the Southeast US Coast and extended from the Atlantic into the Southeast Conus. Further west, upper level troughing extended from near Hudson Bay into the Plains to Central Plains. At the surface, a boundary that had stalled out over the area earlier in the day was lifting to the northeast as a warm front in advance of a sfc low tracking from the mid MS Valley vicinity toward the Great Lakes. Isolated mainly weak convection was occurring from the Bluegrass region east near the I-64 corridor into western West Virginia. A few sprinkles were occurring further south. Late afternoon temperatures ranged from the upper 80s near the TN border to the mid to upper 70s in the north and east. The upper level ridge will become centered off the southeast U.S coast tonight and tomorrow which will allow the upper level trough to approach the eastern Conus from the west. An initial shortwave should pass northwest of eastern KY tonight, while the main trough axis progresss into the western Great Lakes to mid MS Valley tonight and then reaches the eastern Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley to Gulf coast vicinity on Friday evening. This will be preceded by the previously mentioned sfc low tracking across central sections of the Great Lakes to the St Lawrence Valley. The boundary currently lifting north will move north and east of eastern KY this evening. Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will progress across the Commonwealth tonight through midday on Friday, crossing eastern KY during the day. Chances for showers wane this evening, with the boundary moving north and loss of daytime heating. With a moist airmass in place and the approaching cold front, mild overnight lows compared to mid October normals are anticipated for tonight. Highs for Friday occur during the morning, before temperatures drop by midday into the afternoon on west to northwest winds. Cooling temperatures aloft and the approach of the upper trough and passing front will result in shower chances for Friday with light amounts. The upper trough continues east and crosses eastern KY on Friday night particularly nearer to the VA border. Lingering low level moisture and upslope flow will result in chances for showers/light rain lingering Friday evening into Friday night. Lows will be cooler than recent nights in the upper 30s to mid 40s. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 834 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Expect a significant drop in temperatures to occur on Friday evening, with temperatures in the 50s area-wide by sunset. Once the sun goes down and solar insolation goes away, the temperature plummet will continue. The entire CWA should wake up to temperatures in the 40s on Saturday morning, but lingering cloud cover and some upsloped rain showers should prevent it from getting much colder than that. The same cannot be said for Saturday night/Sunday morning, which looks to be the coldest night of the autumn season thus far. As a post-frontal surface high pressure system builds into the CWA on Saturday morning, winds will shift to a more northerly orientation. This will bring an end to any orographically-enhanced post-frontal rain chances, and a much cooler/drier continental airmass will move into the region in the wake of the precipitation. Highs will struggle to get much warmer than the 50s, and dewpoints will plummet into the 30s on Saturday afternoon. Diurnal mixing should work to erode any lingering cloud cover by sunset, which should set the stage for efficient radiational cooling overnight. NBM ensemble data resolves a 60-90% chance of temperatures dropping below 36 degrees across most of the JKL CWA overnight. The most sheltered and shaded valleys could make a run at the 32 degree mark, but the probability of occurrence drops to below 40% at this threshold. As a reminder, the criteria for a Frost Advisory is defined as minimum shelter forecast temperatures between 33 and 36 degrees Fahrenheit during the growing season, on nights with good radiational cooling conditions. Saturday night is poised to meet this criteria, so agricultural interests and recreational gardeners are encouraged to monitor for potential product issuances as the time approaches. Temperatures will be slow to make a full recovery back above the 70 degree mark next week, although a gradual warm-up is expected. The postfrontal high should shift east on Sunday as the mid/upper level trough axis aloft swings through New England. Antecedent forecast thinking is that a building ridge will allow temperatures to moderate back into the 60s under fair skies by early next week. However, some of the more recent pieces of guidance (namely members of the Euro ensemble) are developing a cut-off low over the Carolinas in this time frame. That feature could block the eastward propagation of that ridging, and it would cause temperatures to stay on the lower side of the forecast envelope early next week. Nevertheless, fog should become favored over frost in the valleys at night as temperatures warm. This is typical for autumn in Eastern Kentucky, and next week's forecast features temperatures much closer to normal than what we are experiencing at the present moment. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026 At issuance time, VFR was reported for southern TAF locations such as KSME and KLOZ, while MVFR to IFR, and in some cases lower reductions were reported in locations further to the north including KJKL, KSJS, KIOB, and KSYM. A few showers were moving across northern and eastern sections as a boundary continues to lift back north. With daytime heating, gradual improvements should occur during the fist 6 hours of the period for the 4 more northern TAF locations with VFR continuing in the south. Also, additional scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm may develop and affect KSJS, KIOB, KJKL, and KSYM during the first 6 hours of the period. Chances for showers diminish quickly thereafter, with mainly VFR anticipated between 00Z and 12Z. A cold front will near and move across the area to end the period. This will likely bring a return of low clouds including some MVFR or perhaps lower ceilings and the chance for showers. Winds will average south to west at generally 10KT or less through 12Z, before becoming westerly at 6 to 12KT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...MARCUS/HAL AVIATION...JP