FXUS63 KJKL 151245 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 845 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures remain mild today, while showers are possible at times into Friday. - Much cooler weather arrives for the weekend - likely the coldest we have experienced so far this autumn. This poses a risk for frost on Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 834 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026 A frontal boundary is stalled east-west across the forecast area this morning, with areas of showers tracking eastward along the front. Meanwhile, a mid-upper level low is over the central high plains and a significant mid-upper level trough is moving southeast into the CONUS from southern portions of Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The low will get picked up by this trough and help to further deepen the trough as it continues to head southeast and encompasses most of the eastern CONUS by Friday night. This will support a surface low currently developing near OK, which will rapidly deepen as it tracks across the Great Lakes and then to the St. Lawrence Valley by late Friday. The developing storms system will initially pull our current frontal boundary back northward this afternoon, and take it out of our area to the north tonight. Showers may continue at times near the front, but will end in our area once the front departs to the north this evening. A few thunderstorms will also be possible, especially if there is sufficient heating for surface based instability near the boundary this afternoon. The storm system's cold front will sweep cleanly through the JKL forecast area from NW to SE on Friday. Showers or light rain are likely for most of the area on Friday, mainly post cold fropa. Friday's highs should be during the morning and midday hours ahead of the front, with temperatures then falling for the rest of the day behind the front. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 834 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Expect a significant drop in temperatures to occur on Friday evening, with temperatures in the 50s area-wide by sunset. Once the sun goes down and solar insolation goes away, the temperature plummet will continue. The entire CWA should wake up to temperatures in the 40s on Saturday morning, but lingering cloud cover and some upsloped rain showers should prevent it from getting much colder than that. The same cannot be said for Saturday night/Sunday morning, which looks to be the coldest night of the autumn season thus far. As a post-frontal surface high pressure system builds into the CWA on Saturday morning, winds will shift to a more northerly orientation. This will bring an end to any orographically-enhanced post-frontal rain chances, and a much cooler/drier continental airmass will move into the region in the wake of the precipitation. Highs will struggle to get much warmer than the 50s, and dewpoints will plummet into the 30s on Saturday afternoon. Diurnal mixing should work to erode any lingering cloud cover by sunset, which should set the stage for efficient radiational cooling overnight. NBM ensemble data resolves a 60-90% chance of temperatures dropping below 36 degrees across most of the JKL CWA overnight. The most sheltered and shaded valleys could make a run at the 32 degree mark, but the probability of occurrence drops to below 40% at this threshold. As a reminder, the criteria for a Frost Advisory is defined as minimum shelter forecast temperatures between 33 and 36 degrees Fahrenheit during the growing season, on nights with good radiational cooling conditions. Saturday night is poised to meet this criteria, so agricultural interests and recreational gardeners are encouraged to monitor for potential product issuances as the time approaches. Temperatures will be slow to make a full recovery back above the 70 degree mark next week, although a gradual warm-up is expected. The postfrontal high should shift east on Sunday as the mid/upper level trough axis aloft swings through New England. Antecedent forecast thinking is that a building ridge will allow temperatures to moderate back into the 60s under fair skies by early next week. However, some of the more recent pieces of guidance (namely members of the Euro ensemble) are developing a cut-off low over the Carolinas in this time frame. That feature could block the eastward propagation of that ridging, and it would cause temperatures to stay on the lower side of the forecast envelope early next week. Nevertheless, fog should become favored over frost in the valleys at night as temperatures warm. This is typical for autumn in Eastern Kentucky, and next week's forecast features temperatures much closer to normal than what we are experiencing at the present moment. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 844 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026 Showers were affecting portions of the JKL forecast area at the start of the period, especially moving in from the west. The precipitation is associated with a stalled frontal boundary over the area. Conditions varied widely from VLIFR to VFR. The most widespread poor conditions were near/north of I-64, and the most widespread good conditions were near the TN border. Showers will occur at times near the front today, but the front will head back north as a warm front late today and tonight, taking precip with it. As the front heads north, overall improvement in conditions is forecast across the area. Mainly VFR is expected to have returned area wide by early this evening, and then lasting into the night. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...MARCUS/HAL AVIATION...HAL