FXUS62 KJAX 191423 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1023 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - High Risk Of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches Today - Patchy to Areas of Locally Dense Fog Possible Early on Wednesday Morning for Inland Southeast GA - Isolated Afternoon & Early Evening Thunderstorms at Inland Locations through Friday. - Scattered Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Area-Wide from Saturday through Memorial Day. - Historic Drought Conditions Continue Across Much of Our Region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - High Risk for Rip Currents at All Area Beaches. - Locally Dense Fog Late Tonight, Mainly for Inland Southeast GA. Surface high pressure ridge axis will remain stationed just north of the region with an easterly steering flow through the period. Drier air mass for mid-May time frame with PWATs less than 1.5 inches will only support widely scattered showers and isolated storms at times over the Atlantic Coastal waters and near the coast at night then moving inland across Northeast Florida and the I-75 corridor during the afternoon hours as the breezy East Coast sea breeze pushes inland with sustained winds around 15 mph with frequent gusts to 20- 25 mph at times. Max temps will remain slightly above normal with highs in the lower 90s inland, upper 80s along the I-95 corridor and middle 80s along the Atlantic Coast. Boundary layer cooling over inland areas will support low temps in the 60s and locally dense fog during the late night/early morning hours, but likely not significant enough to become widespread at this time. Onshore flow will keep Atlantic Coastal Min temps in the lower/middle 70s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Daily isolated thunderstorms each afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland towards the I-75 corridor. Drier air in place will limit showers and storms over much of the area Wednesday and Thursday, however isolated storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon over north central Florida, and again on Thursday afternoon over north central FL and near I-75. The persistent east-southeast flow will continue to bring breezy conditions along the coast, with gusts up range from 15 mph to 20 mph each afternoon. Inland high temperatures will soar into the lower to mid 90s, whereas coastal highs will stay a little cooler with the sea breeze, in the mid to upper 80s I-95 eastward. Mild low temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s both nights, with chances for patchy inland fog both Wednesday and Thursday mornings. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... - Warm temperatures continue through the weekend. - Increasing chances of showers and storms into and through the upcoming holiday weekend into next week. Rain and storm chances increase Saturday through Monday area- wide as southerly flow allows both the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes to develop and meet in a more central location. Storms will primarily develop in the afternoons, beginning to dissipate around sunset. PWATs will trend towards the 1.5" to 1.75" range, possibly as high as 2" for some locations over SE GA by Sunday, which could lead to locally heavy downpours for any storms that develop. The hot temperatures will continue through the weekend as highs will rise to lower to mid 90s across inland locations outside of convective activity, while the mid to upper 80s along the coast. Overnight Lows will be in the upper 60s to 70s area- wide. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Periods of MVFR ceilingsaround 1,500 - 2,500 feet are expected at the Duval County terminals and SGJ through around 18Z terminals and SGJ, with ceilings then expected to rise to VFR levels of 3,500 - 4,000 feet by 19Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may develop just west of the GNV terminal after 19Z, but confidence remains too low to indicate anything other than vicinity shower coverage at this time. Shower activity should shift west of the GNV terminal by 22Z. Periods of IFR to LIFR conditions are expected after 05Z at VQQ. Easterly surface winds sustained around 10 knots at SGJ will increase to around 15 knots and gusty after 17Z. Easterly winds will increase to 5-10 knots elsewhere by 14Z, with speeds of 10-15 knots expected after 17Z. Speeds will gradually diminish after 02Z Wednesday. && .MARINE... Atlantic high pressure centered to Bermuda will continue to extend its axis across the southeastern states through the end of the week. Prevailing east to southeasterly winds will continue across our local waters during the next several days. A frontal boundary will briefly stall over the southeastern states late this week. Caution conditions will again be possible for the near shore waters from Friday through early next week as Atlantic high pressure becomes reinforced near Bermuda. Rip Currents: Persistent east to southeast winds and surf of 2-4 ft will keep a high risk of rip currents in place Today and at least a moderate risk at area beaches on Wednesday and Thursday, with high risks again possible from Friday through the upcoming Holiday weekend, as late afternoon and evening easterly wind surges potentially return. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy High Dispersions This Week. The combination of deep mixing and sufficient southeasterly transport winds will generate generally good to high dispersions inland each afternoon this week. With the persistent onshore flow, moisture will continue to filter into the area, leading to MinRH not being of particular concern this week. With the onshore flow from the Atlantic, convective activity will be possible each afternoon to evening as the sea breeze pushes inland. By the weekend, increase chances and coverage of showers and storms is expected. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Isolated thunderstorms through the week. each day Tuesday onward. Patchy fog possible this morning and Wednesday mornings for inland locations. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 92 64 90 66 / 10 10 10 0 SSI 87 71 85 74 / 0 10 0 0 JAX 90 65 89 69 / 0 10 10 0 SGJ 87 71 87 72 / 10 10 10 0 GNV 92 66 92 69 / 20 10 30 0 OCF 92 68 91 70 / 30 10 30 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for GAZ154-166. MARINE...None. && $$