FXUS63 KIWX 221205
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
805 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances (30-55 percent)for showers and thunderstorms today. A
  few strong storms are possible east of Interstate 69 this
  afternoon and evening.

- Hazardous swimming conditions are expected on Lake MI beaches
  along Berrien Co, MI and La Porte County, IN this weekend.
  Dangerous waves and currents are expected. Monitor the beach 
  forecast for updates. 

- Dry conditions return Sunday night into Wednesday afternoon.
  Highs will be in the 70s and low 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 607 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

A cold front extending from low pressure over MI is draped across 
our CWA from Three Rivers, MI down into White County, IN. Showers 
and storms have formed along this boundary, with one stronger storm 
near Wabash/Whitley/Kosciusko County lines as of this writing. The 
front will drift eastward through the afternoon, with a second 
shortwave/trough moving in behind it. This will lead to additional 
storms in NW OH this afternoon/eve as we destabilize. Otherwise, 
highs will be in the 70s, low 80s with gusty northwest winds. 

The surface low/low aloft sinks into southern Ontario by Sun Eve/Mon 
Am, with our area in persistent northwest flow. There are low 
chances for showers and storms (20-35 percent) on Sunday before we 
are trapped beneath the upper level ridge. Dry conditions persist 
into Wednesday afternoon before another broad trough encompasses the 
upper Great Lakes Wed eve into next Saturday.

Northwest flow of 15-20 knots with gusts up to around 25 knots on 
Lake MI through the next couple of days will build waves to 3 to 6 
feet today into Sunday, with dangerous currents possible. Maintained 
the going beach hazards statement, and extended the small craft 
advisory.  There may be a lull in the wave/wind activity later 
tonight before waves climb up again on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 803 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Predominantly MVFR to VFR conditions at the terminals today
behind a cold front, with potential for additional
showers/storms later this morning/early afternoon as a shortwave
moves through. Otherwise, light west-southwest winds shift
northwest with gusts up to around 22kts this afternoon. 

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...MCD