FXUS63 KIWX 160422 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1222 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Turning much cooler and windy for Friday with some lake effect rain showers expected. The strongest wind gusts are expected downwind of Lake Michigan across Berrien and La Porte Counties where gusts to 45 mph are likely Friday afternoon and evening. - There are chances of frost both Friday night and Saturday night. - After below normal temperatures this weekend, temperatures will warm back above normal early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Low level warm/moist advection is increasing this afternoon as a mid/upper ridge axis shifts across the eastern Great Lakes. Low level flow will continue to strengthen over the next several hours with some pockets of better low level moisture convergence associated with speed convergence overspreads the area. Surface low pressure across NE Missouri will deepen some as a pair of upper level short waves advance east from central CONUS. The first of these waves is across the Central Plains this afternoon and will rapidly get ingested northeast into stronger west- southwest flow downstream of a more potent/dynamic upper level trough currently digging across the Dakotas. This evolution still looks inline to support a rapidly northward lifting warm front through this evening with a sharp increase in low level moisture and northward shift of pool of better instability from southeast MO into southern IN/western KY. It still appears as though locations in local area south of US Route 24 will have a brief window of weak MLCAPES (100-300 J/kg) in the 01Z-05Z timeframe tonight. Some weak prefrontal trough forcing may contribute to more scattered convection after initial bands of rain showers later this afternoon/early evening, with an environment potentially with some near sfc based instability to work with. While instability magnitudes will remain quite weak, robust low level and deep layer shear profiles will build in from the southwest, so will still have to be watching for some isolated strong-severe potential mid-late evening and possibly into early overnight for areas south of US-24. The more favorable combination of CAPE/shear still looks to be displaced south from southern IL to central IN where some isolated tornado potential cannot be ruled out given low level shear profiles. Confidence in severe weather potential as far north as local area remains on the low side, but will continue to monitor far southern locations later this evening/early overnight. A good deal of cloud cover/limited instability and stronger forcing displaced west and northwest of local area may be limiting factors for isolated severe threat. Sfc low pressure will continue to deepen Friday morning across far SE Ontario/Quebec as the more potent northern Plains trough approaches the western Great Lakes. Low level height gradient, while strong on Friday, does not look as strong as several forecast cycles ago as a secondary west-east low level trough axis will be dropping into the region Friday afternoon. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will look reasonable for most of the area with an exception of potential 40+ mph gusts closer to Lake Michigan shoreline. A Wind Advisory has been issued for Berrien MI and LaPorte IN Counties for Friday 18Z to Saturday 03Z. The potential strongest winds look to be in the 18Z-00Z period following secondary trough passage, with warm lake waters helping post-frontal mixing. After 00Z confidence in stronger wind gusts begins to diminish somewhat as some thermal modification of mass fields could lead to weak lake aggregate trough and a slackening of the gradient. This process should prolong the potential of lake effect rain showers into Friday night across NW IN and perhaps far SW Lower MI. The strong negative upper height anomaly will be progressive through the region with expansive longwave upper ridge spreading across central CONUS Saturday. A few nights of frost potential still look on track. On Friday night there could be an area across central portions of the forecast area that may be situated between lingering lake effect clouds to the west, and lingering better mixing to the east to allow for some patchy frost. Saturday night/Sunday AM will also feature patchy frost potential, with best chances across approx SE 2/3rd of the area as weak return southwest flow develops across western/southern Great Lakes. Much of next work week looks much quieter weather-wise as primary storm track remains across southern Canada while longwave ridging dominates central part of the country. Confidence is high in gradual warm up to above normal levels during the early to middle portions of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1222 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Cold front moves through with showers and gusty westerly winds early this morning. Mainly MVFR ceilings anticipated, though brief periods of IFR remain possible. Ceilings likely hover in MVFR daybreak through the early afternoon with westerly winds gusting up to around 20 knots. A secondary trough drops through this afternoon with increasing rain coverage, particularly at KSBN where lake enhancement kicks in. Winds become more northerly and remain gusty then into this evening. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM CDT Friday for INZ103-203. OH...None. MI...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ043- 046. Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Marsili AVIATION...Steinwedel