FXUS63 KILX 231745
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1245 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonal and mostly dry weather is expected through at least
  Tuesday evening over central and southeast IL.

- The next chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives on
  Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening. Some of these 
  storms could be strong to marginally severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Upper air analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure 
anchored over the southwest US with troughing over the eastern 
US. Northwest flow between these two features will keep seasonal
and mostly dry weather in place through the start of the new 
week. 

By midweek, a compact upper shortwave will track through the 
northern Great Lakes Region, sending a cold front through a good 
portion of the Midwest states. This will bring our next chance for 
showers and storms. Out ahead of the front, temperatures will climb 
well into the 80s with steady moisture return sending dewpoints into 
the upper 60s to low 70s. Forecast guidance is showing moderately 
strong instability developing by Wednesday afternoon with seasonally 
strong shear. Forecast soundings depict inverted-V T/Td profiles 
with a large area of CAPE atop of that. A capping inversion will be 
in place most of the day, but will erode from west to east by late 
afternoon/early evening as the front approaches. Although the better 
upper forcing will be displaced to our north, a few strong to 
marginally severe storms could develop Wednesday afternoon and 
evening, posing a threat for damaging wind gusts.

Later this week, northwest flow aloft will become more zonal by the 
weekend. A few weak shortwaves traversing through the upper flow may 
spark occasional spotty showers, though most will stay dry. Longer 
range guidance shows a more defined wave/front moving through 
sometime later Saturday or Sunday, which would bring another chance 
for precipitation. Temperatures will remain seasonable through the 
end of the month with highs in the low to middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail next 24 hours
through 18Z/1 pm Monday across the central IL airports. The only
exception would be if any patchy shallow ground fog develops
late tonight/early Mon morning. HREF has only a 15-30% chance 
of visibilities getting to 5 miles or less from 09Z-14Z over 
central IL airports. Best chances of fog will be near the river
valleys and low lying rural areas. Diurnally driven few to  
scattered cumulus clouds with bases of 4-6k ft this afternoon 
to dissipate at sunset and could reappear after 16Z Mon. Weak 
1020 mb high pressure over central/northern MO and ridging into 
central Iowa and upper MS river valley, to drift over the 
central OH river valley Monday morning while ridging back into 
northeast IL. NW winds 5-10 kts this afternoon (isolated gusts 
to 15 kts early like at DEC) to diminishing light and variable 
to calm tonight after sunset. Winds remain light Monday morning 
and could be variable direction yet with weak high pressure 
ridge nearby. 

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...NMA
DISCUSSION...NMA
AVIATION...07