FXUS61 KILN 230016
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
816 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for our far eastern
counties.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon
and evening as a cold front moves through. Some severe storms are
possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Scattered storms will increase in coverage this afternoon ahead of a
cold front. SBCAPE values near 2000 J/kg will support some tall
updrafts that may produce some strong to damaging wind gusts.
Additionally, freezing levels near 11,000 ft will allow for at least
some small hail to develop in several of these storms. Marginally 
severe hail near 1" certainly possible with the tallest storms, but 
that threat will be more limited. The severe threat will gradually 
taper from west to east this evening, ending by 7-8 PM for our CWA.

Note that these storms will be capable of brief heavy downpours as
well. However, the environment is such that storm motion will be more
progressive, which will help limit some of the hydro concerns.
However, if a location where to receive multiple rounds of heavy
downpours or had some brief backbuilding, minor flooding issues may
ensue.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface cold front and pushed east of the TAF sites and any lingering
instability will continue to diminish. A brief period of gusty winds
to near 20 kts will affect the central Ohio TAF sites for the next
hour and then diminish to less than 10 kts with sunset. Some of the
guidance is reducing vsbys to IFR restrictions at KLUK due to river
fog overnight. At this time have opted for MVFR restrictions but will
monitor trends.

Any fog will improve quickly Sunday morning. Forecast soundings show
a good signal for VFR cumulus Sunday afternoon. Northwest winds will
increase to 10 to 12 kts with gusts up to 20 kts during the
afternoon. 

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Clark
AVIATION...AR