FXUS61 KILN 221038
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
638 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop today ahead of a
cold front moving through the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Mid level energy moving through the base of an upper level trough 
over the Great Lakes region will help push a cold front east across 
our area today. Some spotty shower activity will be possible through
mid morning, but more widespread showers and thunderstorms will 
develop ahead of the front as we destabilize late this morning and 
into this afternoon. The models have trended a bit faster with the 
front, so the better chances of pcpn this afternoon looks to be 
across our eastern areas. 

Deep layer shear will not be all that impressive initially, but it 
will tick up a bit into the 20-30 knot range through mid to late 
afternoon. This could lead to a few strong to severe storms -- with 
the best chance for this across mainly our eastern areas where the  
instability and deep layer shear will be somewhat better. Damaging 
winds would be the main threat along with possibly some hail as some 
cooler air moves in aloft. 

PWs will mainly be in the 1.25 to 1.5 inch range so it will be tough
to rule out some locally heavy downpours. The storms should be 
fairly progressive though and this should help limit any additional 
flooding concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms moving across eastern Indiana 
are forecast to dissipate through mid morning, but they may still
affect the western TAF sites early in the TAF period. Otherwise,
expect additional scattered shower and thunderstorm development 
later this morning and into this afternoon as a cold front moves east
across the region. Pcpn will taper off from the west late this 
afternoon into early evening as some drier air moves in behind the 
front. 

Southwest to west winds to around 10 knots or so will become
more northwesterly later this afternoon behind the front. Some wind 
gusts to around 20 knots will also be possible for a few hours later 
this afternoon on the backside of the front. 

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL