FXUS62 KILM 240703 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 303 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes coming down the track as we hit 3 AM EDT. Updated aviation discussion found below for the 06Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, especially along the eastern portions of the forecast area. - 2) Temperatures remain near seasonal norms much of this week, with more organized chances of showers and storms due by later this week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, especially along the eastern portions of the forecast area. Latest surface analysis shows a weak front draped across the forecast area, cutting through roughly from Florence, SC up through Elizabethtown, NC. A couple of isolated showers have popped up near this boundary during the overnight hours, but the majority of the area remains quiet for now. Throughout today, this front will try to drift a little more southward towards the coast, but likely stalling out before it gets there. Meanwhile, a broad upper low spinning over the Great Lakes, Ontario, and Quebec has a wide trough axis that comes all the way down into the Carolinas. This axis will continue to deepen slightly, and move eastward into the local forecast area. The bulk of the vorticity is locked way up north, but shortwaves within the trough will allow for some extra forcing later in the day. The seabreeze will allow for initial convection to kickoff sometime around 1-2 PM EDT this afternoon just inland from the coast. The frontal boundary and the forcing aloft will act to exacerbate storms aided by their outflows. Along the eastern half of the forecast area, dewpoints well into the 70s will promote buoyancy, going hand- in-hand with the moderately strong instability in play. Effective shear parameters also look a bit more convincing in the coastal areas, generally 30-40 kts. Overall, scattered storms expected near the coast this afternoon, gradually pushing inland with the outflows. Strong to severe storms are possible, particularly with damaging winds and perhaps a brief spin-up tornado. A "Slight Risk" (threat level 2/5) of severe weather possible east of I-95. Storms should start coming down by sunset. .KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures remain near seasonal norms much of this week, with more organized chances of showers and storms due by later this week. Temperatures should remain rather even keeled this week. Highs each day hover somewhere in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Only a few isolated spots may hit heat indices in the triple digits at times, and thankfully, no advisory-level heat expected this week. A more organized frontal system comes into play Thursday and Friday, which may stall out near the coast over the weekend. As a result, more appreciable rain and thunderstorm chances look to come to fruition. Precipitable water (PWAT) values hit 2 inches again, pointing towards a tropical atmosphere (minus the tropical storm part). The drought continues across the area, and this may afford more opportunities to keep chipping away at it. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mostly VFR through the 06Z TAF period. MVFR fog ongoing at KMYR, and may spread over towards KFLO and KLBT by 09-10Z. IFR fog is possible in these same areas, particularly at KFLO. Used TEMPO groups to show the trends. Fog should mix out by 13Z or so. A weak front will move into the vicinity and stall out just inland from the coast. The front and seabreeze will result in some convection by 17-18Z mainly towards the coast, handled by PROB30 groups. Convection should subside by sunset this evening. Winds calm after sunset, and fog could be an issue again towards the end of the period. Extended Forecast...Mainly VFR with early morning fog and stratus possible each morning. The areal coverage of storms is projected to increase at all terminals from the mid to latter parts of the week. This could lead to restrictions from time to time in/near any of the rounds of convection that develop. && .MARINE... Through Friday...A weak front will move towards the coast today with S-SWly flow prevailing across the adjacent waters. This boundary may become nearly stationary along the coast the first part of the week with light/variable conditions near the front and generally light S-SWly to its east and south. Any convection has the potential to create locally higher wind/wave conditions. The old boundary will likely drift back to the north by mid-week with an increase in S-SWly flow that will persist through Friday. Overall, seas will be in the 2-4 ft range offshore, and 1-3 across the coastal waters. However, as mentioned above, locally enhanced winds/seas are expected at times as a result of convection. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB KEY MESSAGES...IGB DISCUSSION...IGB AVIATION...IGB MARINE...IGB