FXUS63 KICT 182346 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 646 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon into the overnight hours. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall are all possible. - Cooler weather begins Tuesday, with highs in the 60s and low 70s through at least Thursday. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday night into the weekend. Widespread severe weather is not expected at this time, but could see a few strong to severe storms toward the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis depict a potent mid/upper trough ejecting out of the Rockies into the Central Plains. Surface analysis early this afternoon depicts a stalled quasi-cold front spanning from north central KS south/southwest into the OK Panhandle, while a surface low pressure resides near KGBD. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along the stalled front. With mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and 35-45 kts of deep-layer shear, storms should grow severe rather quickly, especially early on prior to storm interactions. As prior discussions have mentioned, mostly boundary- parallel shear will promote a messy linear mode with embedded supercell structures. Given the environment, however, initial development will likely be discrete/semi-discrete and supercellular in nature. This will allow for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. We could also see a few landspout tornadoes primarily across central KS given the slow-moving nature of the boundary. The timing for these higher end severe threats appears to be through 8 PM. In addition to these threats, heavy rain arising from training storms may result in flooding concerns, especially in central KS where soils have already been saturated from yesterday's heavy rainfall. As the aforementioned trough continues to eject to the northeast into the Northern Plains this evening, the cold front will pick up speed and progress to the southeast. As this morning's discussion highlighted, this will likely decrease the threat for very large hail and supercell/landspout tornadoes with the growth transitioning into a mostly linear mode. This transition will promote more of a wind threat, but could still see large hail with this activity given the ample instability continuing into the overnight hours. Also can't rule out a few tornadic circulations within the line due to the strong low-level shear/SRH, but this threat should remain low relative to this afternoon's chances. Storm chances will largely exit the region with the departure of the cold front, though far southeast KS could see some lingering showers and storms through the day on Tuesday. Cooler temperatures are forecast throughout the area as well, with the post-frontal airmass promoting afternoon highs in the 60s and 70s through at least Thursday. With the right entrance region of the upper jet progged to linger across the Central/Northern Plains, chances for showers and storms are expected to arrive Wednesday night and last into the weekend. At this point, it appears that Friday will hold the next potential for strong to severe storms given the return of instability and reasonable deep-layer shear. Details this far out are quite uncertain, though widespread severe weather appears unlikely to this point. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A cluster of strong and severe storms was situated over south central Kansas along and immediately in the wake of a cold front. This activity will continue to propagate east/southeast into the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas this evening before exiting Kansas around or shortly after midnight. Damaging winds and large hail will remain possible for terminals in south central and southeast Kansas as the line of storms moves through. MVFR ceilings are expected to expand in the wake of the front with some IFR possible at times. Low clouds will mix out from west to east as we move into the late morning and early afternoon hours on Tuesday but may linger through the day in far southeast Kansas. Breezy northwest winds at 20 to 25 mph will be common over the region on Tuesday. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ051>053- 067>070-082-083-091>094-098. && $$ DISCUSSION...JWK AVIATION...MWM