FXUS64 KHUN 221933
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
233 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...New NEAR TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 909 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

 - A few thunderstorms may impact the western portion of north AL
   late this afternoon/early this evening. Brief strong wind gusts
   could accompany the most intense cells.

 - There are low to medium chances of thunderstorms for much of
   next week. However, timing and impact confidence remains low 
   at this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Under mostly sunny skies temps have warmed into the high 80s to
low 90s. Relatively benign weather is forecast through the early
afternoon, after which, attention will shift to a cold front
approaching from the NW. Currently, a complex of storms can be
seen moving SE through the Ozarks. As the cold front continues to
drop SE, storms too will move gradually SE. Still thinking storms
will arrive between 6-8 PM and push through by midnight.
Unfortunately coverage remains fairly uncertain as CAMS struggle 
to resolve the weak cold front and associated mid level shortwave.
While coverage could be a little more widespread, the current 
forecast is that storms will clip NW AL, largely staying west of 
I-65. Storms that do develop will have a risk for damaging winds 
with bulk shear of around 30 KTs present along the front. 
Instability will be waning as storms move in, which will likely 
lead to a weakening trend as storms push south. Please check back 
for updates. Any storms and rain present look to end after 
midnight with clear conditions building in by morning. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 909 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

The short term forecast will have two features of interest. The
first is slightly cooler temps with highs and lows a degree or two
below seasonal norms. Highs look to largely remain below 90
degrees with lows staying below 70. The second feature of 
interest will be the overall synoptic pattern, which will remain 
in a ridging west / troughing east regime. This will keep us in NW
flow and support additional shortwaves passing through the TN 
Valley. The first of these looks to be from Monday to Tuesday. 
While it's a little too soon to pull out specific details, really 
any passing feature could be enough to support general summertime 
thunderstorms each afternoon. Please check back for updates 
regarding any specific hazards and timing. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 751 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

In the extended forecast, we will get a break from the extreme heat
conditions, however in exchange for that, we will be stuck in an
unsettled pattern. 

We will start off with the pattern of an upper level low up in Quebec
and the far NE U.S with an amplified ridge stretching from the 
southern Rockies up through the Northern Plains. On the back side 
of the ridge, a smaller upper-level low in Manitoba will try to be
the driving force for a pattern change. As that smaller low 
slides SE into the Upper Great Lakes mid-week, the ridge will be 
dampened enough for it to round the ridge. This pattern will keep 
us in a northwesterly flow through the week. Embedded in this flow
will be shortwaves that will swing through the TN Valley, keeping
daily rain chances in. Right now it looks like there is a chance 
for an MCS to drop through on Tuesday, then again Wednesday night 
into Thursday morning. Will keep an eye on trends for specific 
hazards and timing, but for now will stick with NBM POPs. Daytime 
highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows 
around 70 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

VFR conditions are largely expected through the TAF period. A low
chance for showers and storms exists this evening at MSL from
around 23Z-02Z. Have not included anything in the TAF due to low
confidence but amendments may be necessary if storms do make it 
this far east. Any flight restrictions should lift back to VFR by
06Z and prevail through the remainder of the period. 

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...RAD