FXUS64 KHUN 191645
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1145 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1014 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

 - Low to medium chances (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms 
   return tonight.

 - Medium to high chances (50-90%) of showers and thunderstorms
   then persist each day from Wednesday through much of the
   weekend. No severe weather is forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1014 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

A hot and humid summer like day is underway as temperatures as of
10am are in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints in the 
upper 60s to around 70F. The local forecast area remains along 
the western edge of high pressure that is centered over the 
Carolinas. The high clouds this morning continue to scatter out, 
but with daytime heating the fair weather Cu field is forecast to 
develop by this afternoon. Later today, expect afternoon highs to 
climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s with max heat index values 
in the low to mid 90s. Looking at forecast soundings, the 
atmosphere becomes quite unstable, however with no lifting 
mechanism in place and some weak subsidence aloft, no precip is 
forecast today. If you plan on being outside this afternoon make 
sure to hydrate and practice good heat safety. 

By tonight, the MCS along a cold front that impacted MO/AR/LA 
will push eastward into TN/MS. By the time it reaches NW AL a 
gradual weakening trend is anticipated as it runs into a more 
stable environment. That being said, the outflow boundary 
associated with the MCS will at least provide a low chance 
(20-40%) of showers and storms after midnight in portions of NW 
AL. No severe storms are forecast given the weak vertical wind 
shear.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday Night) 
Issued at 1014 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

The cold front associated with the active weather to our west
finally makes its way into the TN Valley. As it stalls just to our
west, shortwaves are forecast to ripple northeastward along the 
boundary Wednesday and Thursday. This will result in medium to 
high chances (50-90%) of showers and thunderstorms. While it is 
difficult to determine when the precip will occur, the best 
chances for thunderstorms will be during the afternoon and evening
hours. The good news is that there is little to no shear, 
therefore no severe storms are expected. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday) 
Issued at 1010 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026After sunrise, w

A more summerlike pattern will persist through the Day 4-7 period
as 5h ridging builds farther into the southeast U.S. and eastern 
Gulf of America. Southwesterly flow will persist northwest of the 
ridge, maintaining a moist flow of air into the Gulf States, 
particularly in the lower MS Valley where 2.0+ inch PWs will 
reside. Although, there is a corridor of slightly lower values in 
the 1.5-1.8 inch range over AL into eastern and middle TN, with 
higher values farther east across the FL peninsula through GA and 
the Carolinas. Multiple weak impulses will lift northeast through 
this period, with medium to high chances of showers and 
thunderstorms each day (diurnally inflated due to heating). High 
temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s, with lows in the 
60s. Dew points will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

VFR conditions continue today with gusty southerly winds around 20
knots. Winds will subside and become light overnight. Tomorrow
morning, rain and thunderstorm chances begin to increase. This
will result in both vsbys and cigs dropping down to MVFR. One 
uncertainty is the timing, hence left in a prob 30 group for now 
and will refine in future forecasts.&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...GH