FXUS63 KGLD 222056
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
256 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms forecast to develop along the CO Front Range late this
  afternoon will track east toward the KS border this evening. 
  A few storms capable of producing small hail and localized 
  wind gusts up to 65 mph are possible, mainly in eastern CO 
  between 7-11 PM MDT. 

- Another chance for storms Sunday night with a low risk for
  damaging winds. 

- Severe chances likely return for early next week under
  northwest flow. 

- Above normal temperatures through at least mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Upper ridge over the Texas Panhandle today will gradually
migrate westward to the Four Corners by Tuesday night. This
position will keep the Central Plains under zonal to 
northwesterly flow through the period with chances for showers
and thunderstorms. 

Today and Sunday, with the ridge to the south and a zonal flow
coming out of Colorado, convection originating over the
mountains and Front Range will move east and reach the area
during the evening hours. Storms will likely be weakening as
they do so with the rapid decrease in instability near sunset.
Nonetheless, they may still pose a marginal severe wind risk
even in the decaying stages. Rainfall amounts look to be light,
less than a quarter of an inch both nights. 

Monday and Tuesday, will be transitioning back to northwest flow
with a corresponding increase in deep layer shear. This will
result in better organized updrafts and a severe risk both days
for wind and hail. On Monday the primary storm initiation area
will be southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. The mean
flow around the ridge will take them east then southeast with
time, which will place areas generally north of Interstate 70 in
the most favorable region for severe storms. On Tuesday, storms
will be initiating further south in northeast Colorado in the
afternoon, then moving east to southeast through the evening.
The severe risk will extend into most if not all of the area.

Temperature trends for the period will be above normal all days
with highs well into the 90s. Normal highs for this time of year
are in the upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 251 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Synoptically, the ridge to the west is forecast to mainly remain 
stationary over the Four Corners region, keeping us in 
northwesterly flow throughout the period. Guidance indicates the 
ridge may begin to amplify on Wednesday, and begin to de-amplify 
come Friday as a trough moves through the US/Canadian Border. 
Shortwaves are expected to move through the area during the week and 
into the weekend, increasing precipitation chances. 

High temperatures for the period will generally remain in the 90s. 
Wednesday appears to be the "coolest" day, with highs ranging from 
the mid 80s to low 90s. Friday is forecast to be the warmest, with 
highs in the upper 90s and the potential for a few locations to 
reach the low 100s. If the ridge begins to move eastward, then 
higher than forecasted temperatures could be seen. Winds are 
expected to remain calm to breezy throughout the period. 

Precipitation chances are present throughout the period. Wednesday 
and Thursday hold the highest potential, with PoPs in the 20-50% 
range, as shortwaves move through the area during the afternoon and 
evening hours. While instability and shear parameters appear 
sufficient for severe storms, model guidance suggests some 
variability in CAPE and shear values, which could lead to less 
organized storms and reduced severe chances. Precipitation chance 
then begins to taper off to 5-15% for Friday and Saturday. 

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1030 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the
afternoon with mostly clear skies and light winds. Tonight,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move out of
Colorado late this evening and overnight. There is around a 30%
probability of impacting KGLD with brief gusty winds and
visibility reductions due to rain.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Holdren
AVIATION...024