FXUS63 KGLD 191911 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 111 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Occasional shower chances through the rest of the week, perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 220 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Frost Advisory: In the advisory area, a short period of frost is possible an hour or two on either side of sunrise this morning, when pervasive low ceilings (2000-3000 ft AGL at 0845Z) will begin to lift/scatter. Observational trends suggest that Yuma/Kit Carson counties are most at-risk for frost (relatively speaking). Low confidence in frost development, especially south of Hwy 36 where breezy (10-20 mph) north winds are more likely to persist through sunrise. Today: ~1025 mb surface high pressure in Wyoming at 06Z will build ESE over central Nebraska and north-central Kansas today. Expect decreasing cloud cover by sunrise and mostly clear skies by late morning as northerly low-level flow advects a drier airmass southward into the Tri-State Area. Winds will decrease to 5-10 mph by late morning to early afternoon (~16-19Z).. in concert with a weakening MSLP-850 mb height gradient. Clear skies / unimpeded insolation will foster a warming trend with highs ranging from the upper 50's to upper 60's. Tonight: Light N winds will shift to the E (this evening) and SE (early Wed morning) as the surface high over central Nebraska and north-central Kansas progresses slowly E toward northwest Missouri/western Iowa.. leading to modest low-level moisture return (850 mb dewpoints rising from -3 to 3C) by sunrise in eastern CO and adjacent KS border counties. Strengthening mid- level (700-500 mb) warm advection in advance of an upper level wave.. a modest 250-350 mb trough / shear-axis progressing eastward from the 4-Corners to the central Rockies.. will foster increasing mid-level cloud cover (ceilings at/above ~7,000 ft AGL) this evening and overnight. Despite a modest increase in low-level moisture and an increasingly upslope component to low- level flow in eastern CO, guidance suggests that weak/neutral low-level thermal advection will be insufficient for low stratus development, and that.. mid-level warm advection, in of itself, will likely be insufficient to produce measurable precipitation (i.e. anything beyond virga/sprinkles) prior to sunrise. Expect overnight (Wed morning) lows in the upper 30's to lower 40's. Wednesday: Showers are possible over portions of the area, mainly west and north of Goodland during the late morning and early afternoon when/where mid-level warm advection will be strongest; enough to capitalize on/utilize modest elevated instability (~100-250 J/kg MUCAPE). Expect broken/overcast cloud cover over most or all of the area and ~10-20 mph SE winds with highs in the upper 50's to mid 60's. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 110 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Saturday, our region is forecast to be under a weak southwest flow with a weak trough along the Rocky Mountains. Expect mostly sunny skies and a slight warming trend through the beginning of the work week. High temperatures are forecast in the 70s for Saturday and the 80s for Sunday and Monday. Saturday will have a 25-35% chance for showers and thunderstorms across the county warning area (CWA) from weak shortwave passages. After Sunday, we transition to more of a ridge pattern, so expect primarily sunny skies and gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoons for our Colorado counties Sunday and Monday. Warm temperatures continue Tuesday with highs forecast in the 80s. Wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible Tuesday for the western CWA. With relative humidity (RH) values overall trending down and forecast in the low 20s forTuesday, fire weather potential will need to be monitored through the week. Models are in disagreement on the track and evolution of a surface low off the coast of Baja California that starts to develop late Sunday. If this surface low ends up tracking toward our region, we have potential for an active pattern and severe weather potential late next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1117 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Mid and high clouds will gradually increase tonight with scattered light showers in the area by 12z Wednesday morning. No impacts are expected at this time at either terminal. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...Rhoades AVIATION...024/ICT