FXUS63 KGLD 170613
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1213 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions possible this afternoon from
  the Tri Border area into northeast Colorado.

- Temperatures warming to near and slightly above normal through
  early next week, warmest in Colorado. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Ridge centered over the Southern Plains will be the dominant
upper feature through the period. Dry conditions with
temperatures generally near or slightly above normal are
expected. Warmest temperatures will be in northeast Colorado 
today and Sunday where downslope winds near the lee trough will
bump temperatures into the 70s. This will also lower afternoon 
humidity minimums and result in fire weather concerns, from the 
Tri Border area southwest into Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne 
counties in northeast Colorado. Afternoon minimums today in 
those areas will be as low as 8-12% and on Sunday 10-15%. Winds 
today peak in the morning and then diminish somewhat in the 
afternoon, but still will be very close to the 25 mph threshold 
for Red Flag. Confidence is around 50% for reaching critical 
criteria this afternoon for a few hours between 18-00z. On 
Sunday, winds appear to be too light with the lee trough axis 
moving further east. By Monday relative humidity improves with 
light winds, so not expecting any fire weather concerns. 

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Upper-level ridging is expected to persist across the Central Plains 
Monday through Wednesday. Confidence is high on southwest flow 
during this period. High pressure with a plethora of dry air aloft 
is likely. A shortwave trough, accompanied by weak low pressure at 
the surface, is forecasted to influence the County Warning Area 
(CWA) Monday into Tuesday. Dry air aloft is expected so nothing is 
to come from this feature other than a wind shift. Looking ahead, 
guidance foresees the next synoptic system making its way across the 
southwestern US Thursday. This negatively tilted trough should begin 
to influence the area then, keeping the 300-500mb winds 
southwesterly. Moisture advection is added into the mix with 
dewpoints anticipated to increase into the upper 50s for various 
locations. Strong low pressure and a stationary front are forecasted 
to form at the surface, providing rising motion needed for rain to 
develop. 

It will likely be quiet initially, precipitation wise, for a 
majority of the long-term period as dry air aloft dominates. PoPs 
(Probability of Precipitation) guidance displays less than 10% 
through Wednesday evening. Add Thursday into the mix and rainfall 
chances increase a bit. Confidence on widespread precip is on the 
low end right now as ensemble guidance attempts to project how the 
system evolves across the CONUS through Thursday. Nonetheless, a 
general 25-35% is forecasted for the time being. 

A warmup is expected for the region as temperatures bounce back, 
with help from high pressure, winds aloft, and plentiful sunshine. 
Highs in the upper 60s/low 70s Monday rise into the upper 70s/low 
80s Tuesday, and should culminate into more consistent 80s 
throughout the CWA on Wednesday. Thursday should see a slight 
decrease in high temps but mid 70s to low 80s is still forecasted 
across the board. Overnight lows should sit in the 40s for Monday 
and Tuesday mornings then rise up to the 50s Wednesday and Thursday 
morning. 

Fire weather projects to be mild for this particular long-term 
forecast period. However, conditions will still have to be monitored 
thoroughly with relative humidity (RH) remaining low (20-30%), winds 
remaining gusty (up to 45 mph), and increasingly dry fuels expected 
across the CWA through next week. RH values are currently forecasted 
20-25% Monday-Wednesday for portions of eastern Colorado. RH values 
elsewhere across the coverage area are projected at 30-50% through 
Thursday. Transitioning to surface winds, Monday's winds are 
anticipated to be light and variable (5-15 mph from the North) 
gusting up to 20 mph. Tuesday and Wednesday project slightly 
stronger winds (10-20 mph from the South) gusting up to 25 mph. 
Thursday is likely to observe the strongest southerly surface winds 
at around 15-30 mph, gusting up to 45 mph through some areas of 
eastern Colorado.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1129 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for both KGLD and KMCK, through the
TAF period. Winds are expected to be from the south-southwest 
and generally around 5-10 kts. Beginning around 11-13Z, winds 
will remain from the south-southwest, but will begin to increase
to around 10-15 kts. Gusts around 25-30 kts are possible 
through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ Saturday for 
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Saturday for COZ090>092.
NE...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ Saturday for 
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024/AMP
AVIATION...Holdren