FXUS63 KGLD 161740 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1140 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light freeze likely across the entire area Saturday morning with a hard freeze possible in western areas. - Critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon, mainly in northeast Colorado. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1230 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Upper ridge begins to build in from the west today. The axis will be over the area on Saturday followed by southwest flow on Sunday as it continues to move east. At the surface, sprawling high pressure centered over the High Plains today will move south, with a lee trough developing in its place on Saturday which moves little through Sunday. No precipitation is expected through the period under the ridge. Winds will diminish today as the surface high builds in from the north. Return flow on Saturday combined with the deepening lee trough in Colorado will result in breezy south winds gusting up to 35 mph by the afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions will be possible in northeast Colorado as temperatures there warm into the mid 70s and relative humidity drops into the teens. The same area will see low humidity Sunday afternoon but winds will be lighter and elevated fire weather conditions are more likely than critical. Temperatures will be cool once again today with highs in the mid 50s, but warm over the weekend into the 60s and 70s. A light freeze is likely across the entire area Saturday morning with a hard freeze possible (40% probabilities) in northeast Colorado and west of Highway 27 in Kansas and Nebraska. Low temperatures Sunday and Monday mornings will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Upper-level ridging is expected to persist across the Central Plains Monday through Wednesday. Confidence is high on southwest flow during this period. High pressure with a plethora of dry air aloft is likely. A shortwave trough, accompanied by weak low pressure at the surface, is forecasted to influence the County Warning Area (CWA) Monday into Tuesday. Dry air aloft is expected so nothing is to come from this feature other than a wind shift. Looking ahead, guidance foresees the next synoptic system making its way across the southwestern US Thursday. This negatively tilted trough should begin to influence the area then, keeping the 300-500mb winds southwesterly. Moisture advection is added into the mix with dewpoints anticipated to increase into the upper 50s for various locations. Strong low pressure and a stationary front are forecasted to form at the surface, providing rising motion needed for rain to develop. It will likely be quiet initially, precipitation wise, for a majority of the long-term period as dry air aloft dominates. PoPs (Probability of Precipitation) guidance displays less than 10% through Wednesday evening. Add Thursday into the mix and rainfall chances increase a bit. Confidence on widespread precip is on the low end right now as ensemble guidance attempts to project how the system evolves across the CONUS through Thursday. Nonetheless, a general 25-35% is forecasted for the time being. A warmup is expected for the region as temperatures bounce back, with help from high pressure, winds aloft, and plentiful sunshine. Highs in the upper 60s/low 70s Monday rise into the upper 70s/low 80s Tuesday, and should culminate into more consistent 80s throughout the CWA on Wednesday. Thursday should see a slight decrease in high temps but mid 70s to low 80s is still forecasted across the board. Overnight lows should sit in the 40s for Monday and Tuesday mornings then rise up to the 50s Wednesday and Thursday morning.Fire weather projects to be mild for this particular long-term forecast period. However, conditions will still have to be monitored thoroughly with relative humidity (RH) remaining low (20-30%), winds remaining gusty (up to 45 mph), and increasingly dry fuels expected across the CWA through next week. RH values are currently forecasted 20-25% Monday-Wednesday for portions of eastern Colorado. RH values elsewhere across the coverage area are projected at 30-50% through Thursday. Transitioning to surface winds, Monday's winds are anticipated to be light and variable (5-15 mph from the North) gusting up to 20 mph. Tuesday and Wednesday project slightly stronger winds (10-20 mph from the South) gusting up to 25 mph. Thursday is likely to observe the strongest southerly surface winds at around 15-30 mph, gusting up to 45 mph through some areas of eastern Colorado. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1140 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 For KGLD and KMCK, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Conditions will be breezy and mostly out of the northwest with gusts around 25 knots possible through around sundown. Winds will remain light and variable until around 06Z when they become more out of the southwest. Light winds will remain mostly out of the southwest, but pick up towards the end of the TAF period with gusts up to 30 knots possible. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ Saturday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029- 041-042. CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Saturday for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ Saturday for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...024/AMP AVIATION...Rhoades