FXUS63 KGLD 150623 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1223 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers ending this morning to early afternoon. - Windy this afternoon with gusts up to 55 mph in northeast Colorado and 30-50 mph elsewhere. Some patchy blowing dust possible in Colorado. - Frost and light freeze possible tonight, then a light freeze likely Saturday morning with a hard freeze possible. - Critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon, mainly in northeast Colorado. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1215 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Scattered showers will continue to move east overnight and this morning ahead of the upper trough axis. Secondary band to the northwest associated with the sheared out remnants of the upper low may survive as far south as Yuma County before weakening this afternoon with a few light showers. Otherwise, main concern today will be the potential for windy conditions, primarily in northeast Colorado. Mid to late afternoon clearing may be enough to mix down stronger winds to the surface on the backside of the upper trough. NBM probabilities continue at 50-60% in a fairly small area of western Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties for gusts of greater than 55 mph after 18z through about 22z. Some patchy blowing dust may also develop with favorable mixing heights, but with the recent rainfall confidence is on the low side given the moist top soils. Gusts outside of northeast Colorado should max out in the 30-50 mph range. Winds take some time to diminish tonight with gusts of 20-40 mph well into Friday morning before a noticeable decline. This may inhibit temperatures from falling despite clearing skies. NBM probabilities for 32 or colder are running around 40-50% near the Kansas and Colorado border to up to 70-90% along Highway 59 and northern Yuma County, where there is also around a 40% chance for a hard freeze of 28 or lower. Elsewhere, a frost is more likely. Upper ridge will build in from the west on Friday and Saturday resulting in dry conditions. Friday will see light winds by the afternoon with temperatures in the mid 50s. Winds shift around to the southwest and increase late Friday night, gusting 20-30 mph by Saturday morning in Colorado and west of Highway 25. This may once again inhibit temperatures from falling despite the clear skies. Nonetheless, probabilities are running quite high for a light freeze in the entire area, near 100%, with a wide range of probabilities for a hard freeze, favoring low spots in Colorado and along the Republican River. The south to southwest winds continue to increase through the day on Saturday, with gusts of 30-40 mph common by the afternoon, highest in Colorado. Afternoon relative humidity is forecast to drop to 15% or lower from Yuma County southwest into western portions of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties, which combined with the gusty winds will result in near critical to critical fire weather conditions. This may extend into the adjacent counties of Kansas and Nebraska for a few hours as well. High temperatures in those areas will reach the 70s with downslope warming, with 60s expected elsewhere with a more southerly wind component. Saturday night lows will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 256 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Synoptically, we find ourselves in northwest flow aloft on Saturday as a ridge develops over the eastern Rockies/northern Plains. The upper-level pattern will briefly shift westerly then southwesterly flow Sunday as this system propagates eastward across the north- central CONUS. Winds aloft should remain from the southwest until a shortwave passage shifts them to be briefly zonal or west- northwestward on Monday. After this, ensemble guidance suggests more ridging building in Tuesday which insinuates southwest upper-level flow once again. Descending to the surface, high pressure is forecasted Saturday through late Sunday. A weak low, associated with the shortwave, should then move across the County Warning Area (CWA) Monday. No frontal boundaries are anticipated with the overall system over the four-day forecast period, therefore limiting any precipitation chances to shortwave passages. It is likely to be dry Saturday through Tuesday as current Probability of Precipitation (PoP) guidance has 5% or less for the entire long-term period. High temperatures Saturday should be on the more seasonable side, with general 60s and low 70s expected throughout the CWA. Sunday/Monday should see a bit of a warmup as 70s across the board are anticipated. Said warmup should culminate in upper 70s for Tuesday. Low overnight temperatures are what we will have to watch for this timeframe as well. Many locales have a strong chance to see their first frost/freeze of the season this Saturday with low temperatures projected to bottom out in the low 30s. Guidance currently has a range of 30-33 degrees for the entire CWA. Looking ahead, lows Sunday through Tuesday are expected to sit in the 40s in some locations and upper 30s in others, so freeze potential will be unlikely those mornings. Fire weather potential will continued to be monitored throughout the week. Currently, there is a low chance of critical fire weather conditions being met in eastern Colorado on Saturday, according to guidance. Relative Humidity (RH) values possibly reaching 14/15% is in the mix on Saturday for areas west of US-385. Simultaneously, southerly surface winds are expected to peak around 20-25 mph, gusting 35-40 mph. For the rest of the forecast period, RH values reaching the upper teens is likely Sunday and Monday for our eastern Colorado counties. Northerly winds, shifting southeast with the shortwave passage, generally 5-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph is expected. Tuesday's RHs and winds are not expected to be of concern for fire weather in eastern Colorado. Elsewhere in the CWA, RH values in the 20-40% range is likely through the weekend and into next week. General winds of 5-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph is expected. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1149 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 LIFR ceilings are in place at both KGLD and KMCK as a north-to-south oriented band of showers makes its way eastward across the area. All showers are now east of KGLD, though KMCK can expect to see on-and- off rain as this band goes through. Observations have shown ceilings slightly rising and visibilities hovering around 3-5 statute miles as showers come through, so this is forecast to continue over the next few hours for KMCK. Ceilings will begin to lift between 10 and 11Z, though are still expected to remain IFR through about 13 or 14Z. There is a low chance of further showers during the early afternoon, though guidance seems to suggest that these showers have a chance of dissipating before reaching KGLD and KMCK. There are indications of wind shear with a low level jet starting later this afternoon as well, though model soundings suggest that any wind shear will be weak and brief. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for KSZ001-013-027-041. CO...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for NEZ079. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...024/AMP AVIATION...Davis