FXUS65 KGJT 201742
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1142 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
 
- Scattered showers with some thunderstorms will favor the
  northern and central areas Thursday as a disturbance and cold
  front move through by Thursday evening.  

- Drier conditions are expected this weekend with a return
  towards warm, above normal temperatures. 

- Unsettled conditions potentially return to the region early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

While the pattern is slowly transitioning to drier and warmer
with a ridge of high pressure expected this weekend, we are
still under the influence of an upper level trough that is
positioned across the northern Rockies. Some potential vorticity
and an upper level jet overhead is resulting in some light
isolated showers across the central and southern Divide
mountains this afternoon. Most areas should remain dry but 
temperatures will still be around 5 to 10 degrees below normal 
even though they are expected to end up a few degrees higher 
than yesterday. Models are honing in on potential for more 
scattered showers with some thunderstorms possible across the 
northern areas Thursday afternoon, with potential for these 
showers/storms to push further southward into the central areas 
late Thursday afternoon into the evening as the last piece of 
this shortwave trough and associated cold front moves through 
Thursday evening. That being said, accumulations at this time 
are expected to remain light. Some critical fire weather 
conditions are possible across southeast Utah and southwest 
Colorado but even this looks a bit marginal for both RH and wind
so elected to hold off on issuing any Fire Weather highlights 
at this time for those areas where fuels are critical. Some sub-
freezing temperatures are expected across the Central Yampa 
River Basin tonight but coverage of hard freeze appears more 
localized and concentrated along the Yampa River so coverage 
wasn't widespread enough and decided to hold off on another 
Freeze Warning. Temperatures cool down a few degrees for Friday 
following frontal passage but conditions should improve through 
the day with an overall dry day expected aside from some light 
lingering showers over the northern mountains.

THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND:

A ridge of high pressure builds in for the weekend with
temperatures returning towards above normal levels by about 5 to
10 degrees through early next week. While conditions are
expected to be drier, afternoon convection is possible each day
favoring the high terrain. Beyond Sunday, moisture increases
Monday into Tuesday as a low pressure trough moves into the
Pacific Northwest and the flow shifts to the southwest, which
could favor increasing precipitation chances and better coverage
for showers/storms, particularly Monday night into Tuesday.
Still some uncertainty but potential does exists for more
unsettled conditions heading into early next week after a drier
and warmer weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026

Westerly to northwesterly winds are expected this afternoon, 
with gusts of 15-25 knots. These winds will relax after sunset, 
becoming light and terrain driven. Some light rain showers, 
maybe a few isolated thunderstorms, are expected along the 
southern and central Divide, impacting KTEX, KGUC, and possible 
KASE. These showers will produce gusty and erratic winds, brief 
rainfall, and possibly lightning. In addition, these showers 
will keep ceilings near ILS breakpoints for KASE and KEGE 
through 00z. Skies clear by 06z tonight. VFR conditions will 
prevail, though brief drops to MVFR under passing showers is 
possible.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT