FXUS65 KGJT 201155
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
555 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing temperatures linger into Wednesday morning. Freeze
  Warnings are in effect for the lower basins of northwest 
  Colorado.
 
- After Wednesday, temperatures begin to trend above normal and
  will continue that way through the weekend. 

- Precipitation is periodically possible throughout the week,
  mostly confined to the higher terrain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 952 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026

Overnight clearing skies will contribute to sub-freezing 
temperatures into the early morning Wednesday. Freeze Warnings 
remain in effect for northwestern Colorado and are set to expire at 
9 AM. We are currently in the midst of a pattern shift, where 
ridging and high pressure will begin to build this weekend. The 
weather will be generally dry and quiet as this transition occurs, 
with the exception of some of the higher terrain locations. 
Wednesday temperatures will still remain below normal, but that will 
be the last day with below normal temperatures for the current week. 
Some scattered afternoon rain and snow showers are possible (30-50%) 
in the central and southern mountains Wednesday afternoon. Warming 
temperatures associated with the building ridge will keep any snow 
accumulations very minimal and confined to the highest elevations 
for that time period. On Thursday, another shortwave trough will 
begin to propagate through the area, bringing lift and weak moisture 
to the northern half of our CWA. Some model guidance suggests this 
trough may take a more southerly track which would favor 
precipitation chances along I-70. As more high resolution model 
guidance comes out, more certainty will be revealed for the most 
favorable location for moisture. But at this point, the current 
forecast keeps rain and high elevation snow chances primarily for 
the northern areas. Past Thursday, some pockets of vorticity and 
available moisture may support terrain based afternoon convection 
each day as we move into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026

The weak boundary bisecting Colorado diagonally this morning is
producing some low to mid level ceilings and a few showers. Left
SHRA and TSRA in at KASE, KGUC, and KTEX, as this is mostly a
terrain based problem. This boundary will inch eastward very
slowly today and tonight, so showers and thunderstorms will
remain a possibility on the terrain this afternoon. Gusty
outflow winds look to be the primary impact to aviators, as
moisture is rather weak with this feature. Winds will pick up
this afternoon and gust to around 20 mph with a few stronger
gusts near the mountains. As the boundary begins to clear the
region, expect VFR conditions to resume control to close out
this TAF period. 

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ001-002.
UT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BS/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT