FXUS65 KGJT 200545
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1145 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing temperatures linger into Wednesday morning. Freeze
  Warnings are in effect for the lower basins of northwest 
  Colorado.
 
- After Wednesday, temperatures begin to trend above normal and
  will continue that way through the weekend. 

- Precipitation is periodically possible throughout the week,
  mostly confined to the higher terrain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 952 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026

Overnight clearing skies will contribute to sub-freezing 
temperatures into the early morning Wednesday. Freeze Warnings 
remain in effect for northwestern Colorado and are set to expire at 
9 AM. We are currently in the midst of a pattern shift, where 
ridging and high pressure will begin to build this weekend. The 
weather will be generally dry and quiet as this transition occurs, 
with the exception of some of the higher terrain locations. 
Wednesday temperatures will still remain below normal, but that will 
be the last day with below normal temperatures for the current week. 
Some scattered afternoon rain and snow showers are possible (30-50%) 
in the central and southern mountains Wednesday afternoon. Warming 
temperatures associated with the building ridge will keep any snow 
accumulations very minimal and confined to the highest elevations 
for that time period. On Thursday, another shortwave trough will 
begin to propagate through the area, bringing lift and weak moisture 
to the northern half of our CWA. Some model guidance suggests this 
trough may take a more southerly track which would favor 
precipitation chances along I-70. As more high resolution model 
guidance comes out, more certainty will be revealed for the most 
favorable location for moisture. But at this point, the current 
forecast keeps rain and high elevation snow chances primarily for 
the northern areas. Past Thursday, some pockets of vorticity and 
available moisture may support terrain based afternoon convection 
each day as we move into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026

A frontal boundary stretching across the Four Corners and
Colorado is pushing cloud cover northeast over the terminals
this morning. This will keep some upper low to mid level clouds
in the ceilings. KASE could see breakpoints with shower
development early Wednesday morning, but still a low chance with
PROB30 language only at this time. This trend will hold true
against the Continental Divide Wednesday, with a few showers
forming on the terrain. Moisture remains rather weak though, so
not expecting widespread aviation concerns. Gusty outflow winds
will be a concern for valley terminals(KTEX, KGUC) near terrain
based showers. Afternoon winds will gust around 20 mph across
the region Wednesday afternoon then sit down around sunset. VFR
conditions will close out this period, as models hint at pushing
this frontal boundary eastward Wednesday night.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ001-002.
UT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BS/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT