FXUS65 KGJT 200409
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1009 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing temperatures linger into Wednesday morning. Freeze
  Warnings are in effect for the lower basins of northwest 
  Colorado.
 
- After Wednesday, temperatures begin to trend above normal and
  will continue that way through the weekend. 

- Precipitation is periodically possible throughout the week,
  mostly confined to the higher terrain. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 952 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026

Overnight clearing skies will contribute to sub-freezing 
temperatures into the early morning Wednesday. Freeze Warnings 
remain in effect for northwestern Colorado and are set to expire at 
9 AM. We are currently in the midst of a pattern shift, where 
ridging and high pressure will begin to build this weekend. The 
weather will be generally dry and quiet as this transition occurs, 
with the exception of some of the higher terrain locations. 
Wednesday temperatures will still remain below normal, but that will 
be the last day with below normal temperatures for the current week. 
Some scattered afternoon rain and snow showers are possible (30-50%) 
in the central and southern mountains Wednesday afternoon. Warming 
temperatures associated with the building ridge will keep any snow 
accumulations very minimal and confined to the highest elevations 
for that time period. On Thursday, another shortwave trough will 
begin to propagate through the area, bringing lift and weak moisture 
to the northern half of our CWA. Some model guidance suggests this 
trough may take a more southerly track which would favor 
precipitation chances along I-70. As more high resolution model 
guidance comes out, more certainty will be revealed for the most 
favorable location for moisture. But at this point, the current 
forecast keeps rain and high elevation snow chances primarily for 
the northern areas. Past Thursday, some pockets of vorticity and 
available moisture may support terrain based afternoon convection 
each day as we move into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 521 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026

Gusty winds are coming to an end at most terminals as we move into 
the evening hours. Winds will be generally light and terrain driven 
overnight and into the morning hours, before gusty (20-25 kts) winds 
pick up again Wednesday afternoon. Some showers are expected to 
develop at KASE, KGUC, and KTEX Wednesday morning into the 
afternoon. There is a possibility for cigs to fall below ILS 
breakpoints where shower activity is present. Isolated 
thunderstorms will also be possible during this time period at 
those sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ001-002.
UT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BS/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT