FXUS65 KGJT 191832
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1232 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing temperatures will impact the lower basins of
  northwest Colorado tomorrow morning. Freeze Warnings are in
  effect.

- Temperatures will start to warm today onward, reaching above 
  normal temperatures by Sunday.

- Precipitation is periodically possible through the week, 
  mostly over the higher terrain. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026

The ongoing active pattern shifts to ridging and high pressure 
this weekend. The weather will generally be dry and quiet as
this transition occurs, with the exception of over the central 
and southern mountains tonight through tomorrow afternoon, and 
across the very northern part of our CWA Thursday. Tonight 
through tomorrow afternoon rain and snow is possible in the 
central and southern mountains thanks to some lingering moisture
and energy from a shortwave trough. Warming temperatures and 
limited moisture will keep any snow accumulations very minimal, 
and only at the highest elevations. On Thursday another trough 
propagates across the area, bringing lift and weak moisture 
advection to the northern half of our CWA. Some deterministic 
models are suggesting a slightly more southerly track for this 
trough, which would bring precipitation chances south of I-70, 
but the current forecast keeps rain and high elevation snow 
chances primarily in the more northern areas. After Thursday 
pieces of energy and moisture in the flow may support some 
terrain based afternoon convection each day. 

Tonight and tomorrow morning the potential for below freezing  
low temperatures persists in northwest Colorado. As such, Freeze
Warnings remain in effect for overnight tonight. Today's high 
temperatures will be well below normal, but the upcoming pattern
shift will raise high temperatures to above normal by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1117 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026

Moisture trapped in the higher elevation valleys has kept low
stratus in place through midday. For KEGE and KASE, this stratus
isn't likely to lift above ILS breakpoints through the next 24
hours. For other terminals, stratus will lift in the next 1-3
hours, if it hasn't already, and will remain as mid to high
level clouds through 06z. After this point, low stratus is
expected to redevelop across the area, with some locations
dropping below breakpoints, at least periodically. Southwesterly
afternoon winds will gust to around 20 knots before becoming
light and terrain driven after 03z. VFR conditions will prevail,
but drops to MVFR under low ceilings will be possible, mainly
after 00z this evening.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ001-002.
UT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT