FXUS63 KGID 200702 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 202 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The Frost Advisory for Valley, Greeley, Sherman, Howard and Nance counties will expire at 8AM this morning. - A handful of showers will move into a few western portions of the area this morning. A few more showers and non-severe storms will move in again later this evening and overnight tonight (35-65% chances, concentrated south of I-80). - Periodic shower/thunderstorm chances will return Thursday and Friday. Most area can expect to see between 0.25-0.5" of precipitation accumulation through Friday night. - Highs today and Thursday will stick in the upper 50s to mid 60s followed by a gradual warming trend back to the 80s by Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Temperatures this morning approaching the mid 30s across a few portions of the area north of I-80 will bring the potential for frost formation. A Frost Advisory remains in effect for Valley, Greeley, Sherman, Howard and Nance counties through 7AM. The cooler temperatures that were observed yesterday will continue to stick around for the next three days as weak surface winds among mostly overcast skies will prevent highs from warming out of the mid 50s to mid 60s. Lows the next 3 nights should continue to fall between the upper 30s to lower 50s, generally only warming a few degrees each night. Higher surface pressure centered over the Plains/Midwest region today and tomorrow will serve as the damper to the surface winds. Light to steady winds out of the east to southeast will last through Thursday. Speeds will primarily stick between 5-10MPH with occasional gusts as high as 20MPH possible. The main story in the short-term will be the potential for precipitation that will come in in the form of several waves of showers and non-severe thunderstorms over the next several days (through Friday night). Starting out this morning with a few showers crawling up from the southwest, another more widespread coverage of showers and weak thunderstorms will push back in later tonight and into early Thursday morning (35-65% chances concentrated south of I- 80). There is generally not enough instability out to threaten any sort of severe weather threat (only 0-200J/kg of CAPE). Aloft, the continuation of intermountain west troughing will keep the area underneath a zone of weak isentropic assent paired with mid- level CVA along the downstream side of the mid-level trough. These features will provide continued support for developing areas of showers and weak thunderstorms across the foothills of the Rockies over the next few days. The waves of showers/storms will continue to track up into portions of central Nebraska/Kansas. Most areas should expected to see between mainly 0.25-0.5+" of precipitation through Friday night. The best individual precipitation chances currently lie overnight Wednesday as well as Thursday night into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Temperatures remain relatively cool today behind the system that resulted in multiple rounds of severe weather over the last 3-4 days. Tonight, temperatures are anticipated to drop into the 30s and 40s, aided by light winds and mostly clear skies under surface high pressure. Clouds are then anticipated to increase early Wednesday morning, which should keep temperatures from dropping much below 35 degrees. Nevertheless, this may result in some frost formation, potentially damaging sensitive plants in areas near/north of Highway 92. The Frost Advisory area is "generous," mainly because we are so far into the growing season already. Many areas, especially in southern parts of Howard, Sherman, and Nance counties, likely will not see any frost impact. Wednesday will remain cool, and rain is expected to slide in from the west as an upper trough pushes into the central Plains. Many areas will remain dry, but western zones could pick up 0.05-0.15". Later Wednesday night into Thursday morning, isolated to scattered showers/t-storms become possible, but instability is very limited and no severe weather is expected. Late Thursday night into Friday, another shortwave is expected to cross the northern Plains, bringing more widespread chances for rain and thunderstorms to the region. The severe threat remains minimal, but this COULD bring some relief to drought- stricken areas of western Nebraska. Low rain chances linger on Saturday, but overall things will trend drier and warmer for the Memorial Day weekend as upper level ridging returns to the north/central Plains. After almost a week of near to below- normal temperatures, 80s are expected to return for Sunday-Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will generally range from east to southeast between 5 to 10 knots. There is a small chance (around 20% to 30%) of MVFR ceilings at KEAR around 18z but confidence is not high enough to include at this time. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039>041-046- 047. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Stump DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Schuldt