FXUS63 KGID 191617 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1117 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The next chance of precipitation will come Wednesday (20-30%) and Wednesday night (40-70%). A mix of showers and non-severe thunderstorms may deposit up to 0.1-0.5" of precipitation. - Periodic thunderstorm chances return each day between Wednesday and Sunday. - Highs through Thursday will remain in the upper 50s to mid 60s. A multi-day gradual warm up back to the 80s will then transpire over the weekend. - A few patchy areas of frost will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for mainly Valley, Greeley, Sherman, Howard, Nance, Merrick and Polk counties. && .UPDATE... Issued at 129 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Today we will finally take a pause from the mention of severe weather as there will be no chance for any sort of precipitation today. A more stable and cooler airmass has now blanketed the area and will keep conditions generally more quiet for the next few days. Winds this morning blowing out of the north to northwest between 15- 20MPH and gusting as high as 25-30MPH, will gradually slow down later this afternoon and evening as higher pressure filters in near the surface. Highs through Thursday will mainly stay in the upper 50s to mid 60s with overnight lows returning back to the mid 30s and 40s for the next at least three nights. The potential for frost will make its return back to possibly a limited northern portion of the area Tuesday night. With lows nearing the mid 30s and with calming overnight winds, frost formation could be possible in a handful of locations north of I-80 (mainly across Valley, Greeley, Sherman, Howard, Nance, Merrick and Polk counties). If this trend continues, a Frost Advisory will need to be considered for these locations overnight Tuesday. The next chance for precipitation will not come until Wednesday as the next low amplitude shortwave trough wobbles through the Central Plains region. A few AM showers could pass near to just west of the area (20-30% precipitation chance). The better precipitation potential (40-70% chances) will come later Wednesday night as a mix of shower and non-severe thunderstorms move into central portions of Kansas/Nebraska. Given the cooler temperatures, a weaker CAPE profile (<500J/km) should limit the total number of storms and keep the mention of severe weather out of the discussion. Otherwise, winds for both Wednesday and Thursday will remain out of an easterly direction, blowing mainly between 5-15MPH with occasional gusts as high as 20-25MPH. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A broad upper level trough over the Rockies has been the driving force for severe weather yesterday and today. Water vapor imagery shows an upper level wave crossing much of the Central Plains this afternoon. Severe thunderstorms are currently going up along a boundary stretching from Hebron, NE to Lincoln, KS, as of 2:30 PM CDT. The main threat are a few tornadoes, golf ball size hail, and wind gusts up to 60 mph. Severe weather is forecast for Mitchell and Jewell continues in KS and Thayer county in NE. Storms will move out the region by the late afternoon with a majority of the severe weather threat off to the east. Areas behind the cold front, which is much of the county warning area, will see low stratus lingering into tonight causing light rain and drizzle. Tonight, temperatures are forecast to drop down into the mid to upper 30s across the county warning area. However, cloud cover and elevated winds, around 15 mph, will likely keep frost from forming. Low stratus should start to clear out by the early morning hours west to east. Tomorrow, temperatures are forecast to climb up into the 60s. Low temperatures tomorrow night are forecast to drop down into the lower to mid 30s across the northern half of the warning area. Unlike tonight, winds are forecast to be on the lighter side allowing frost to potentially form. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue across the Central Plains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move through the region Wednesday bringing forth chances for more precipitation. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side through the middle of the week as the cooler airmass lingers across the Plains. Thus, temperatures are forecast to range from the 60s to low 70s through Friday. Daily chances for thunderstorms returns from Wednesday night into the weekend. NSSL machine learning program and the CSU machine learning program are pegging Friday with a low chance of Severe weather mainly across the southern half of the county warning area. It is possible this low chance of severe weather shifts further south. Temperatures will warm this weekend as an upper level ridge begins to build across the Central US. This warm pattern will continue into early next with conditions drying out. The NBM 25th to 75th percentiles have high temperatures ranging from the lower 80s to the mid 90s. Thus, fairly high confidence on above normal temperatures to start out next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1117 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions are favored through the period. FEW-SCT afternoon cumulus will clear this evening, and additional cloud cover arriving from the west early Wednesday morning. Cloud bases may dip to around 4kft by middy Wednesday, but should remain VFR. Some light rain could move in late in the TAF period, but this is more favored to the west of GRI/EAR. North winds today become light/variable tonight before turning to the southeast and east on Wednesday. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ039>041- 046-047. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Stump DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...Mangels