FXUS63 KGID 160530
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1230 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- In the wake of departing rain, dry weather is likely across
  our entire forecast area through at least Sunday night, and
  probably through at least Tuesday. 
 
- In the wake of a cold front, blustery north-northwest winds 
  will prevail overnight into much of Friday daytime before 
  becoming much lighter late afternoon-early evening. Gusts as 
  high as at least 40-45 MPH likely at times especially some 
  areas north of I-80. 

- As winds become light Friday night-early Sat AM, we are almost
  certainly headed toward our first widespread frost of the
  season, and probably also at least a "soft freeze" between 
  29-32 degrees for most places. A Freeze Watch has been issued 
  for our entire area. 

- After one more day with highs only in the 50s on Friday,
  temperatures gradually warm into the 60s and eventually 70s
  over the next several days. 

- Although still a TON of uncertainty this far out in time, at
  least low chances for rain return to our area by next Wed-
  Thurs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Rain from this morning is moving out of our area to the northeast 
with drier conditions now expected for most of the area, though
some sprinkles could still fall in our northwestern areas. A 
cold front currently over the Sandhills will move southeast over
our area this afternoon bringing steady north-northwesterly 
winds that could gust 30-40 MPH and clearing the clouds. While 
temps cool slightly behind the front, the steady winds prevents 
the temps from falling underneath the frosting threshold 
overnight for the majority of the area, with lows staying in the
upper 30s-low 40s. A few portions in our north and west do drop
into the frost thresholds, however the steady winds will 
prevent frost from forming. 

The steady north-northwesterly winds continue through the daytime 
Friday bringing cool air down from the north and keeping highs in 
the low-mid 50s. Northern and eastern portions of the area will have 
some clouds in the morning but they clear in the afternoon. After 
sunset the winds begin to subside and with clear skies, temperatures 
are able to cool much more efficiently than the night before. 
Widespread lows in the upper 20s-low 30s are possible which 
would bring the first frost/freeze to the area. Southern 
portions of the area, especially north central KS, could stay 
warm enough to prevent a full freeze however, most models keep 
temps in the 30-34 range so the entire area is included in a 
Freeze Watch. 

The upper level troughing that had brought the cooler air to the 
area begins to move east and a slight ridging pattern begins to 
setup into the weekend. As the ridging pattern builds into the area, 
temperatures will begin to warm again starting Saturday with highs 
reaching back into the upper 50s-low 60s. Temperatures continue to 
warm into next week with highs reaching the upper 60s-70s starting 
Sunday and could even flirt with 80 degrees in north central Kansas 
mid-week. Also, as the ridging persists over the area precip chances 
will remain low, though some models have chances returning mid-week. 
Aside from the low mid-week precip chances the area will largely 
remain dry through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Largely VFR conditions favored, with a window of MVFR CIGs
possible 11-17z. Low stratus is expected to move into KGRI/KEAR
from the north during the early morning hours. This SCT-BKN
stratus will range from 020-050. Have included a TEMPO group
during the time when model guidance most favors MVFR potential.
MVFR CIGs move away by the late morning hours, with skies
clearing during the afternoon. 

LLWS will persist through the mid-morning hours. Northerly winds
sustained 15-20kts and gusting 25-30kts are expected through the
late morning hours. Winds steadily-quickly drop off during the 
afternoon hours, with winds becoming light and variable after
sunset. 

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for 
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for 
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McGrew
AVIATION...Davis