FXUS63 KGID 151857
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
157 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Rain has mostly cleared out of our area setting up a drier
 through next week.
 

-A cold front will move through the area this afternoon bringing 
gusty winds lasting through the evening/overnight hours and into the 
daytime Friday. 

-Cold temperatures overnight Friday could bring the year's first 
freeze. 

-Temperatures begin a warming pattern over the weekend with
 highs in the mid 60s-70s next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Rain from this morning is moving out of our area to the northeast 
with drier conditions now expected for most of the area, though
some sprinkles could still fall in our northwestern areas. A 
cold front currently over the Sandhills will move southeast over
our area this afternoon bringing steady north-northwesterly 
winds that could gust 30-40 MPH and clearing the clouds. While 
temps cool slightly behind the front, the steady winds prevents 
the temps from falling underneath the frosting threshold 
overnight for the majority of the area, with lows staying in the
upper 30s-low 40s. A few portions in our north and west do drop
into the frost thresholds, however the steady winds will 
prevent frost from forming. 

The steady north-northwesterly winds continue through the daytime 
Friday bringing cool air down from the north and keeping highs in 
the low-mid 50s. Northern and eastern portions of the area will have 
some clouds in the morning but they clear in the afternoon. After 
sunset the winds begin to subside and with clear skies, temperatures 
are able to cool much more efficiently than the night before. 
Widespread lows in the upper 20s-low 30s are possible which 
would bring the first frost/freeze to the area. Southern 
portions of the area, especially north central KS, could stay 
warm enough to prevent a full freeze however, most models keep 
temps in the 30-34 range so the entire area is included in a 
Freeze Watch. 

The upper level troughing that had brought the cooler air to the 
area begins to move east and a slight ridging pattern begins to 
setup into the weekend. As the ridging pattern builds into the area, 
temperatures will begin to warm again starting Saturday with highs 
reaching back into the upper 50s-low 60s. Temperatures continue to 
warm into next week with highs reaching the upper 60s-70s starting 
Sunday and could even flirt with 80 degrees in north central Kansas 
mid-week. Also, as the ridging persists over the area precip chances 
will remain low, though some models have chances returning mid-week. 
Aside from the low mid-week precip chances the area will largely 
remain dry through the end of next week. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR ceilings to begin the period will clear to VFR ceilings 
starting around 22Z. While the ceilings will remain VFR for
KEAR, models suggest lower level clouds for KGRI around dawn
dropping ceilings to MVFR levels from around 12Z-16Z before
rising back to VFR levels. A cold front moving through the area 
in the afternoon hours will bring steady north-northeasterly 
winds gusting 25-30kts through the TAF period. Additionally, as 
the front passes strong winds in the 1000-2000ft AGL creates 
low-level wind shear (LLWS) starting around 12Z and continuing 
overnight before subsiding around 12Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning 
     for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning 
     for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McGrew
AVIATION...McGrew