FXUS63 KGID 150527 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1227 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... - This evening starts out with a mix of dry conditions in the wake of earlier showers (especially north half of our forecast area) and at least patchy light drizzle (mainly south half of our area). - Starting mainly after 10 PM, more widespread measurable rain in the form of showers and perhaps a few weak thunderstorms will steadily spread SW to NE through our entire area, with fairly constant rain (or at least drizzle when it's not actively raining) lasting through Thursday morning. Widespread rain amounts of at least 0.40-0.80" are likely nearly our entire area, with much more localized heavier amounts up to ~ 1.50" possible here or there. - The coolest air of the fall, thus far, along with the first widespread frost of the season remains on tap for the Friday night into Saturday morning time-frame, with some scattered below freezing temperatures increasingly likely - especially in our typically coolest spots (such as Ord). - Dry conditions and moderating temperatures from 60s into the 70s expected will provide several days of gorgeous fall weather this weekend through early next week. - Our next (and still very "iffy") chance for rain does not arrive until next Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Clouds, scattered showers, and a few embedded thunderstorms have been on the increase from S to N today. Most areas won't see sunshine again until Friday AM. The initial wave of rain today is scattered, but there are some embedded heavier cores with a few rumbles of thunder. Latest guidance lifts this activity S to N through the remainder of the day, with perhaps some weakening with northern extent/time. A much larger, and more persistent, shield of light to moderate rain (and again, a few embedded weak thunderstorms) will spread SW to NE across the entire region late tonight, and continue through most, if not all, of the morning hours Thursday. Not much change to expected rainfall amounts as both the latest HREF and EPS are in good agreement. Most areas will receive around 0.25" to 0.75". Very isolated higher amounts up to 1.5" will be possible, but this will be more of the exception than the rule. Coverage and intensity will taper off from SW/S to NE/N Thursday afternoon. Most areas should be done with rain by around sunset Thursday, though a few sprinkles/very light showers could linger along the Hwy 81 corridor a couple hours longer. North winds will be a bit breezy on Thursday as the entire system lifts through the Plains and into the Upper Midwest - so even when it's not raining, its going to feel quite chilly and raw. High temperatures will only be in the 50s, but it could feel like mid to upper 40s at times with the breeze. Despite clearing skies Thursday night, not expecting frost due to breezy conditions persisting all night. Strongest high pressure of the fall season thus far will ooze into the region on Friday. This will gradually lower wind speeds on Friday, but temperatures will remain seasonably cool only in the 50s. The cool daytime, in conjunction with clear skies, weak winds along sfc ridge axis, and recent moisture will likely set the stage for widespread (perhaps significant/thick) frost Friday night into Saturday morning. Return flow will be on the increase towards dawn over the far W/NW, but damage may already be done in these areas by then. Forecast has been cooling slightly with each and every cycle, and now all but far SE zones are forecast to dip to, or just below, freezing Sat AM. As such, will likely by issuing frost/freeze headlines within the next 12-18 hours for this threat. Temperatures will warm nicely Saturday afternoon in the dry autumn airmass...and expect further moderation to temperatures Sunday into early next week. In fact, upper 60s to upper 70s are forecast each day Sunday through Wednesday next week, with our KS zones possibly even touching the low 80s late in the period. May have another period of patchy frost to contend with Saturday night, but a steady southerly breeze should prevent another round of widespread/thick frost...and lows only warm further from there next several days. So those looking to extend the growing season should be able to get at least another week, provided protective measures are taken Fri night-Sat AM. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Generally poor conditions will continue through the overnight hours with IFR/LIFR CIGS and MVFR VSBYS as continued -SHRAs and some light BR are observed at both terminals. Winds should remain fairly steady and less than 10 KTS from the NE over the next few hours, before increasing and becoming gusty behind a cold front Friday afternoon. Winds will likely gust to near 30KT by 15/18Z...with MVFR CIGS prevailing through around 15/23Z...when model show a sharp cut off in cloud cover behind the approaching front. While VFR conditions will likely return tomorrow evening, winds will remain elevated through the overnight hours, with sustained winds continuing over 20KTs with occasional gusts to 30KTs+. Considered some marginal LLWS overnight (aft 16/04Z), but with surface winds remaining elevated, opted to not include as LLWS for the time being. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thies AVIATION...Rossi