FXUS64 KFWD 240727 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 227 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Very hot temperatures between 102 to 112 will continue through Tuesday. The Extreme Heat Warning for all of North and Central Texas is in effect through this evening, and will likely be needed on Tuesday as well. - A drop in temperatures down into the upper 90s to mid 100s is expected from Wednesday into next weekend as low rain chances return areawide each day. However, most locations will remain hot and dry through the weekend. - Hot temperatures, low humidity and worsening drought conditions will contribute to increased wildfire starts through the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 202 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Water vapor imagery and 00Z upper air raob analysis show a mid- level ridge centered near southern New Mexico early this morning. Westerly flow over the Rockies on the northern periphery of the ridge has led to lee cyclogenesis, resulting in a weak 1008mb surface low centered over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Lift from a shortwave propagating around the ridge will promote pressure falls over an existing weak front in western OK, migrating the surface low eastward by late morning. This will tighten the pressure gradient over North and Central TX and veer surface winds to the SSW. Given mid-level subsidence from the ridge and downslope effects from the 15-20 mph SSW winds, we expect dangerous, extreme heat across North and Central TX today. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect from 12-9pm for high temps and/or heat index values up to 111 degrees. Know the signs and symptoms of heat illness, and limit strenuous outdoor activities today! While early morning convection upstream of our area may bring mid or high clouds into the area, these unfortunately will not prevent compressional warming from the downslope flow. Additionally, the hot, breezy conditions combined with extremely dry fuels and low afternoon RH (15-20%) will elevate our fire threat today. A Grass Fire Danger Statement has been issued for areas west of I-35 this afternoon, where RH will be lowest, temperatures hottest, and skies clearest. Precip chances remain below mentionable in the short term, although silent (10%) PoPs have been added in Northeast TX due to the possibility that the shortwave will bring isolated showers and storms through that area Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 202 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 The upper ridge will begin to shift west on Tuesday, but the air mass over North and Central Texas will remain quite hot. Afternoon temperatures will again climb into the 100-109 range, with the warmest temperatures across North Texas. Heat headlines will once again be needed, however, given the lower temperatures across Central Texas, the ongoing Excessive Heat Warning may be converted to a Heat Advisory. This decision will be made later today with the afternoon forecast package. A more noticeable pattern adjustment arrives Wednesday as the ridge axis settles farther west across the Desert Southwest. This will place the Southern Plains within weak northerly flow aloft and allow temperatures to back off a few degrees. Highs from Wednesday through the weekend should generally range from the upper 90s to 105 degrees. The northerly flow pattern will also open the door for occasional weak disturbances to move south into the region. Rain chances will remain low and poorly timed, but isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible at times from midweek into the weekend. Most areas will stay dry on any given day. Where storms do develop, gusty outflow winds, lightning and brief heavy rainfall will be the main concerns. The prolonged stretch of hot and mostly dry weather will continue to aggravate drought and fire weather concerns. Afternoon humidity will remain low enough to support additional initial attack fire starts, especially in areas that miss out on any rainfall. Late in the weekend into next Monday, guidance suggests the ridge may attempt to expand east again. If this occurs, temperatures would trend upward and rain chances would decrease once more heading into the final week of August. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 202 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the period. A weak low pressure system currently located in the Texas Panhandle will migrate eastward into western Oklahoma by late morning, keeping winds sustained around 15KT with occasional gusts up to 20-25KT in response to the pressure gradient. The influence of this low will likely override any effects of thermal eddies, which had caused variable winds on Sunday afternoon. Precip chances remain very low (<10%) through this TAF period for Metroplex sites, although there is a 10% chance of showers to the northeast near the Bonham corner post early Tuesday morning (03- 12Z). No precipitation is expected at KACT. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 108 84 105 83 / 0 10 10 0 Waco 106 79 103 79 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 104 78 103 77 / 10 10 10 10 Denton 109 82 106 79 / 10 10 10 0 McKinney 106 82 104 79 / 10 10 10 0 Dallas 108 83 106 82 / 0 10 10 0 Terrell 107 79 104 78 / 0 10 10 10 Corsicana 107 78 103 79 / 0 0 10 10 Temple 106 77 103 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 110 78 107 76 / 0 0 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095- 100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fenske LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Fenske/Hernandez