FXUS64 KFWD 230610 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 110 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures near or over 100 degrees will continue through next week, with the hottest days of the summer likely Sunday through Tuesday. - An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for parts of North Texas with a Heat Advisory across the rest of North and Central Texas, and these will likely be extended into early next week. - Hot temperatures and low humidity will contribute to increased wildfire starts this weekend through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through tonight) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Latest radar imagery show the earlier showers and thunderstorms that affect much of southern Oklahoma all day and oozed southward into our area have mostly dissipated. However, this activity has left thick high level cloud cover north of I-20 which has held temperatures down especially closer to the Red River. Based on this, have gone ahead and removed Jack/Wise/Denton/Collin Counties from the Extreme Heat Warning and put them in the Heat Advisory. Despite the cloud cover, highs should still easily reach well into the 90s in our north and 100s elsewhere - with the hottest temperatures expected in the EHW. Although an isolated shower/storm could pop up this afternoon, CAMs have backed off this idea in favor of the shortwave currently moving southward across Kansas/Oklahoma. As this system arrives tonight, CAMs such as the HRRR/HREF indicate isolated showers/storms could move southward out of Oklahoma into North Texas in the 03-09Z timeframe. Have adjusted pops to match this possibility. Otherwise, another warm night in the 70s/80s is anticipated areawide. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Forecast reasoning for next week remains unchanged from previous discussions. The strong upper level ridge centered over New Mexico/West Texas will shift closer to us from Sunday into Tuesday, before gradually shifting back to the west from Wednesday through the rest of the week. This pattern will give North and Central Texas three very hot days from Sunday to Tuesday with highs reaching the hottest of the summer so far into the 103-113 range. The Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory will certainly need to be extended through at least Tuesday of next week. Although a few isolated showers or storms are possible in East Texas on Sunday afternoon, the rest of this three day period will be hot and dry. From Wednesday into next weekend, the center of the H5 ridge will shift westward into Arizona with heights falling aloft and somewhat stronger upper level northerly flow developing over North and Central Texas. This pattern shift will "cool" our high temperatures down into the 98-104 range for the remainder of the week, while also bringing low rain chances each day. Don't get too excited, however, as most areas will stay hot and dry. Given the continued heat and lack of substantial rainfall, drought conditions are likely to worsen with a continued/increasing threat of wildfire starts. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 109 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Scattered, short-lived showers have developed early this morning along an outflow boundary from storms in the Big Country, oriented SW to NE, and behind a weak cold front, currently draped NW to SE across the Metroplex. Brief wind gusts of 15-25KT are possible with these showers, but we expect ceilings and visibility to remain VFR. Light (5-7KT) ESE winds are present behind the front, but wind direction should veer toward more typical southerly flow by sunrise as the front washes out. Meanwhile, light westerly winds have been observed behind the outflow boundary, which will soon near the western edges of the I-35 corridor. We will monitor the progression of this outflow for future amendments, if necessary, to wind direction at Metroplex sites. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 107 85 107 83 / 10 0 0 0 Waco 106 81 103 79 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 103 80 104 81 / 10 0 10 0 Denton 107 84 107 83 / 10 0 0 0 McKinney 106 83 106 83 / 10 0 0 0 Dallas 108 85 108 84 / 10 0 0 0 Terrell 107 82 107 80 / 10 0 0 0 Corsicana 105 81 104 78 / 10 0 0 0 Temple 105 78 104 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 108 81 109 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION...Hernandez