FXUS64 KFWD 222307 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 607 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures near or over 100 degrees will continue through next week, with the hottest days of the summer likely Sunday through Tuesday. - An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for parts of North Texas with a Heat Advisory across the rest of North and Central Texas, and these will likely be extended into early next week. - Hot temperatures and low humidity will contribute to increased wildfire starts this weekend through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through tonight) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Latest radar imagery show the earlier showers and thunderstorms that affect much of southern Oklahoma all day and oozed southward into our area have mostly dissipated. However, this activity has left thick high level cloud cover north of I-20 which has held temperatures down especially closer to the Red River. Based on this, have gone ahead and removed Jack/Wise/Denton/Collin Counties from the Extreme Heat Warning and put them in the Heat Advisory. Despite the cloud cover, highs should still easily reach well into the 90s in our north and 100s elsewhere - with the hottest temperatures expected in the EHW. Although an isolated shower/storm could pop up this afternoon, CAMs have backed off this idea in favor of the shortwave currently moving southward across Kansas/Oklahoma. As this system arrives tonight, CAMs such as the HRRR/HREF indicate isolated showers/storms could move southward out of Oklahoma into North Texas in the 03-09Z timeframe. Have adjusted pops to match this possibility. Otherwise, another warm night in the 70s/80s is anticipated areawide. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Forecast reasoning for next week remains unchanged from previous discussions. The strong upper level ridge centered over New Mexico/West Texas will shift closer to us from Sunday into Tuesday, before gradually shifting back to the west from Wednesday through the rest of the week. This pattern will give North and Central Texas three very hot days from Sunday to Tuesday with highs reaching the hottest of the summer so far into the 103-113 range. The Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory will certainly need to be extended through at least Tuesday of next week. Although a few isolated showers or storms are possible in East Texas on Sunday afternoon, the rest of this three day period will be hot and dry. From Wednesday into next weekend, the center of the H5 ridge will shift westward into Arizona with heights falling aloft and somewhat stronger upper level northerly flow developing over North and Central Texas. This pattern shift will "cool" our high temperatures down into the 98-104 range for the remainder of the week, while also bringing low rain chances each day. Don't get too excited, however, as most areas will stay hot and dry. Given the continued heat and lack of substantial rainfall, drought conditions are likely to worsen with a continued/increasing threat of wildfire starts. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 559 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Surface winds will remain southerly but will oscillate between SE and SW throughout the TAF period at D10 sites (generally 140-220). Winds will be light enough where there are no crosswind concerns, and no flow changes are anticipated with the prevailing wind. Between 00Z and 09Z there is a very low chance (~10%) for an isolated shower in D10, but probs are too low to include in TAFs at this time. Brief wind gusts of 15-25 knots will be possible due to areas of virga during this same time frame, but confidence in timing and location is too low to include in TAFs as well. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 105 83 107 85 / 0 10 10 0 Waco 105 81 106 81 / 0 10 0 0 Paris 100 76 103 80 / 10 20 10 0 Denton 103 81 107 84 / 10 20 10 0 McKinney 103 80 106 83 / 10 20 10 0 Dallas 105 84 108 85 / 0 10 10 0 Terrell 105 79 107 82 / 10 10 10 0 Corsicana 104 81 105 81 / 0 10 10 0 Temple 104 79 105 78 / 0 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 106 78 108 81 / 10 10 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-101>107- 122-123-129-135-141>148-156>162-174-175. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ100- 115>121-130>134. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION...Darrah