FXUS64 KFWD 201120 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 620 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Following a lull in rain chances during the daytime, additional thunderstorms will spread into the area Wednesday night into Thursday. - Daily chances for scattered showers and storms will continue through the weekend and into early next week. Locally heavy rain is possible, with a low potential for strong or severe thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Trailing stratiform precipitation lingers across portions of Central Texas early this morning following the departure of convective complexes along a cold front. This light rain and occasional thunder will continue to taper off heading towards sunrise, with a stabilized and worked-over airmass in its wake. Without any well-defined MCV features present, there will be minimal forcing for any new convective development within the CWA through the morning aside from weak warm advection at the 850mb level. With trailing subsidence in the mid-levels seemingly in place between shortwave disturbances, it appears likely that most of the daytime will be dry today while we await additional thunderstorms arriving from the west later this evening. With mostly cloudy skies along with post-frontal ENE winds, highs will struggle to make it out of the 70s. By late afternoon, the radar should become active across West Texas in response to another pronounced shortwave pivoting through parent large-scale mid-level troughing. This should send one or more convective clusters towards the CWA late this evening or overnight. A lack of deep-layer shear will result in storms that struggle to organize despite moderate instability, and so the overall potential for any organized severe weather is quite low. However, an isolated storm could become strong or marginally severe heading into Thursday as this slow-moving activity continues to progress eastward across the CWA. This will be especially true for any convection that may still exist on Thursday afternoon when destabilization will be further aided by daytime heating. However, the most prominent threat will likely be flooding, as slow storm motions and efficient rainfall processes support locally heavy rain. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Although modest height rises may overspread the area heading into Friday, the recovery of stronger southerly flow and a higher theta-e airmass will still support scattered shower and thunderstorm activity, most of which will likely be diurnally driven. This airmass recovery will also mean a return to warmer and more humid conditions, with highs in the mid 80s and heat index values around 90 on Friday afternoon. By Saturday, a diffuse upper-level low will drift into the Southern Plains where it will linger for a few days while the synoptic pattern remains fairly stagnant. This regime will allow for daily thunderstorm chances to continue over the weekend and into early next week. While activity would likely reach a maximum during peak heating each day, the weakness aloft and occasional subtle shortwaves rounding the low could support showers and thunderstorms outside of traditional diurnal time periods. The presence of this low will also mean very weak shear through the column, and most convection would likely resemble activity more characteristic of summertime thunderstorms. Strong instability but weak shear should lead to mainly ordinary cell or multicellular storm modes with a reduced potential for organized severe weather. Slow storm motions will continue to support a flooding threat through, especially after multipleconsecutive days of rainfall for some locations. Increased cloud cover will continue to provide below normal temperatures through the extended forecast period with highs mostly in the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Deteriorated flying conditions will be slow to improve today with VFR likely not returning until around 20-22Z. Current IFR/LIFR ceilings across D10 should improve to low-end MVFR around mid to late morning. For Waco, MVFR cigs have moved in during the last couple of hours, though the Central TX stratus deck is much more discontinuous. Waco should remain MVFR through midday, but have also included a TEMPO for IFR through 16Z. After conditions improve this afternoon, much of the evening will be VFR before an additional round of stratus impacts all sites Wednesday night/Thursday morning. MVFR/IFR has been introduced towards the end of the TAF, with the timing of these ceiling/vis reductions likely needing to be refined in future issuances. Otherwise, showers and storms will move into the area Thursday morning, but confidence in coverage and timing is low at this time. Winds will be out of the east/northeast around 6-11 kts. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 66 78 66 / 10 50 80 50 Waco 82 67 79 66 / 10 50 90 50 Paris 82 65 76 64 / 10 50 90 80 Denton 79 64 78 64 / 10 60 80 50 McKinney 81 66 77 65 / 10 60 90 60 Dallas 83 67 79 66 / 10 50 80 60 Terrell 83 66 78 65 / 10 50 90 70 Corsicana 85 70 81 68 / 10 60 90 60 Temple 83 68 80 67 / 10 50 80 50 Mineral Wells 78 63 78 62 / 10 50 80 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Stalley LONG TERM....Stalley AVIATION...Gordon