FXUS64 KFWD 200621 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 121 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Following a lull in rain chances during the daytime, additional thunderstorms will spread into the area Wednesday night into Thursday. - Daily chances for scattered showers and storms will continue through the weekend and into early next week. Locally heavy rain is possible, with a low potential for strong or severe thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Trailing stratiform precipitation lingers across portions of Central Texas early this morning following the departure of convective complexes along a cold front. This light rain and occasional thunder will continue to taper off heading towards sunrise, with a stabilized and worked-over airmass in its wake. Without any well-defined MCV features present, there will be minimal forcing for any new convective development within the CWA through the morning aside from weak warm advection at the 850mb level. With trailing subsidence in the mid-levels seemingly in place between shortwave disturbances, it appears likely that most of the daytime will be dry today while we await additional thunderstorms arriving from the west later this evening. With mostly cloudy skies along with post-frontal ENE winds, highs will struggle to make it out of the 70s. By late afternoon, the radar should become active across West Texas in response to another pronounced shortwave pivoting through parent large-scale mid-level troughing. This should send one or more convective clusters towards the CWA late this evening or overnight. A lack of deep-layer shear will result in storms that struggle to organize despite moderate instability, and so the overall potential for any organized severe weather is quite low. However, an isolated storm could become strong or marginally severe heading into Thursday as this slow-moving activity continues to progress eastward across the CWA. This will be especially true for any convection that may still exist on Thursday afternoon when destabilization will be further aided by daytime heating. However, the most prominent threat will likely be flooding, as slow storm motions and efficient rainfall processes support locally heavy rain. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Although modest height rises may overspread the area heading into Friday, the recovery of stronger southerly flow and a higher theta-e airmass will still support scattered shower and thunderstorm activity, most of which will likely be diurnally driven. This airmass recovery will also mean a return to warmer and more humid conditions, with highs in the mid 80s and heat index values around 90 on Friday afternoon. By Saturday, a diffuse upper-level low will drift into the Southern Plains where it will linger for a few days while the synoptic pattern remains fairly stagnant. This regime will allow for daily thunderstorm chances to continue over the weekend and into early next week. While activity would likely reach a maximum during peak heating each day, the weakness aloft and occasional subtle shortwaves rounding the low could support showers and thunderstorms outside of traditional diurnal time periods. The presence of this low will also mean very weak shear through the column, and most convection would likely resemble activity more characteristic of summertime thunderstorms. Strong instability but weak shear should lead to mainly ordinary cell or multicellular storm modes with a reduced potential for organized severe weather. Slow storm motions will continue to support a flooding threat through, especially after multiple consecutive days of rainfall for some locations. Increased cloud cover will continue to provide below normal temperatures through the extended forecast period with highs mostly in the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR/IFR cigs are expanding across D10 with this expected to persist through daybreak, before IFR slowly improves to low end MVFR. A reduction in visibilities is also likely to around 3-4SM. Ceilings should improve to above 2kft early afternoon with a gradual clearing and return to VFR around 21Z. Lingering rain and remains across the KACT region with a few lightning strikes in the vicinity. This will diminish over the next couple of hours with low end VFR ceilings persisting, before the onset of MVFR around 12Z. There's a ~30% chance of IFR between 12- 15Z, but no mention has been included. Will be monitoring for adjustments as needed with trends over the next few hours. MVFR will also continue well into the afternoon before clearing for KACT, with winds shifting more easterly through the period at all sites. Beyond 06Z, chances for showers and storms will return to all of North and Central TX as well as additional ceilings, but this will be assessed in future TAF issuances. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 66 81 67 / 90 30 30 60 Waco 88 70 80 67 / 90 100 30 60 Paris 79 63 80 65 / 90 40 30 50 Denton 83 64 79 65 / 90 30 30 60 McKinney 81 65 80 66 / 90 30 30 60 Dallas 88 66 82 67 / 90 30 30 60 Terrell 84 66 81 66 / 90 40 30 60 Corsicana 84 68 83 69 / 90 60 30 60 Temple 90 69 81 68 / 80 70 40 60 Mineral Wells 82 63 78 63 / 90 50 30 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Stalley LONG TERM....Stalley AVIATION...Gordon