FXUS64 KFWD 191211 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 711 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are expected along a cold front on Tuesday across much of North and Central TX. Some of these storms could be severe with damaging winds and large hail. - Daily chances for scattered showers and storms will continue Wednesday into the weekend. Locally heavy rain will be possible but the severe weather threat appears low. && .UPDATE... Issued at 712 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 We are still expecting thunderstorms to develop across most of North and Central Texas later today, however an overnight MCS well to our south has shifted things up a bit. Since we are on the far northern periphery of the MCS, most of the area along/east of I-35 is currently under a localized area of mid-and upper-level subsidence. This is helping keep a lid on any early-morning pre- frontal deep convective attempts in North Texas that the evening guidance was suggesting. The 12Z FWD RAOB sounding indicates a strong cap residing over the region that should hold for the next few hours as well. As the MCSs cirrus canopy moves east, it will open the door for thunderstorm development over the course of the day today. We're watching a cold front and/or strong outflow boundary that is currently in southern Oklahoma and Western North Texas that will serve as the main trigger mechanism for thunderstorms today. It should be more than sufficient to overcome any inhibition, particularly as we head into the afternoon. The overall forecast trends this afternoon and severe threats haven't changed much, but small-scale boundary interactions will cause some areas to be relatively precip-free for most of the day, despite widespread storms across other portions of the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Satellite imagery shows a rapid expansion of low clouds over the last 2 hours across Central and North Texas indicative of strong low level warm moist advection. A 40-50 kt low level jet is indicated on both the FWS and GRK VAD wind profiles which will continue to transport Gulf moisture northward into the region overnight while resulting in intermittent strong wind gusts. Farther to our north, a cold front is sagging south through Oklahoma with a line of showers and thunderstorms draped across the northwest part of the state. This front will continue to move south toward the Red River by sunrise and will serve as a focus for showers and thunderstorms across North Texas later in the day. Continued warm advection ahead of the front should result in a few scattered showers beneath a modest capping inversion through the early morning hours, but convection should become more numerous by late morning and early afternoon as the front approaches the I-20 corridor. The high resolution guidance has a pretty good handle on the frontal boundary, but there are some differences in convective evolution through midday. As the low level jet begins to veer and pull off to the northeast, some of the guidance takes the bulk of the stronger storms through the Arklatex, with a weaker line extending westward along the I-20 corridor. This seems plausible given that we'll have some capping and time of day would result in a minimum in surface based instability across the Metroplex. Additional strong storms would then be likely to develop a little later in the day farther to the south and west along the frontal boundary when stronger heating results in more instability. The rest of the guidance just brings a line of showers and storms all the way through North Texas with no general weakening trend through midday and further intensification south of I-20 into the afternoon. While it's difficult to pin down the exact scenario that will play out, given the current radar trends to the north, strength of the low level jet and availability of 3000+J/kg of MUCAPE, we'll lean toward this line of storms maintaining some intensity through the early morning hours as it crosses the Red River and approaches I-20 through midday. Further intensification of this line is expected by afternoon as very strong instability will be present along with additional support from a weak embedded shortwave spreading out of Mexico. There will be a threat for severe wind gusts and large hail with any of the storms today. The tornado threat is very low compared to our last few severe weather events. High temperatures will likely be held in check with extensive cloud cover and scattered convection. We'll keep highs in the low/mid 80s Tuesday afternoon. The front and the line of storms should push into Central TX by late in the day with the frontal boundary becoming stalled out Tuesday night. There will be an increasing potential for heavy rainfall, mainly in Central Texas with any lingering activity Tuesday night. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 With the remnant frontal boundary still draped across Central Texas on Wednesday, we'll see scattered showers and thunderstorms continue, although the best coverage will be to our south and east through the afternoon. Most areas in North Texas will remain dry with PoPs only around 20%. By Wednesday night into Thursday, an upstream shortwave will spread into West Texas with height falls overspreading the Southern Plains. A moisture rich atmosphere will be in place across North Texas with PWs in the 1.7-1.9" range. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across West Texas Wednesday night and across all of North and Central TX on Thursday. This will likely be the day we see the heaviest rainfall and potential for flash flooding. At this time, the current forecast has most areas picking up 1 to 3 inches of rain, but some of our southern and southeastern counties may receive as much as 5 inches of rain through the end of the week. With the upper pattern continuing to feature slow moving upper disturbances within an area of broad forcing for ascent and PW values just shy of 2 inches, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the end of the week and into the weekend. The overall severe weather threat appears to be pretty low during this time, but the threat for efficient rainfall producing storms and associated flooding will increase by Thursday into the weekend. Dunn && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 712 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An active weather day is expected to unfold over the course of the day today. An overnight MCS well to our south has helped bring in a localized area of mid/upper-level descent which will squash storm chances for the next several hours. Despite this, a few light rain showers will continue through the morning but we have opted not to include VCSH into the TAFs for simplicity's sake to not drown out the main forecast message below. We are expecting thunderstorms to ignite along a cold front and/or strong outflow boundary that is currently moving through southern Oklahoma/Western North Texas. It should start to encroach on D10 in the mid-to-late morning and slowly move south over the course of the afternoon. Given the anticipated slow-down of the front INVOF D10 and the influence of the MCS to our south, thunderstorm timing today is quite uncertain. We nudged the timing back an hour compared to our earlier forecasts, but we will have to continue to assess timing throughout the morning. We generally expect most of the storms to move south/east of D10 by the mid to late afternoon. The MCS will have a bigger impact on ACT/Central Texas, where we moved back thunderstorms several hours compared to our earlier forecasts. There is potential for another round of storms tonight, mainly for Central Texas/ACT, but we do not have enough confidence at this time to include overnight thunder in the TAF at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Limited spotter activation may be requested on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 64 80 67 / 90 50 20 50 Waco 84 66 81 68 / 90 90 20 50 Paris 81 63 77 66 / 90 40 30 40 Denton 80 62 78 65 / 90 40 20 50 McKinney 81 63 81 66 / 90 40 20 50 Dallas 82 65 80 68 / 90 50 20 50 Terrell 82 64 81 66 / 90 60 20 50 Corsicana 86 65 80 70 / 90 80 30 50 Temple 86 66 80 69 / 80 90 20 60 Mineral Wells 83 62 78 64 / 90 50 20 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dunn/Bonnette LONG TERM....Dunn AVIATION...Bonnette