FXUS64 KFWD 151058 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 558 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast for western North TX through Thursday night. - A strong cold front this evening/tonight will bring windy conditions on Friday. Peak wind gusts to of 40 to 45 mph are likely much of the day. - Much cooler and quiet conditions are expected this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 An active convective pattern will continue to unfold across West TX and Oklahoma early this morning with disturbances moving through the SW flow aloft, ahead of the upper level trough ejecting into the Central Plains later today. Some of this activity has reached primarily our western Red River counties this morning, with scattered showers and a storm or two expected to continue impacting our northwest counties through the morning (40-60%). For most of the area, the remainder of the overnight hours will be quiet with broken low clouds and south winds 10-15 mph. This trend should continue through the morning hours with much of the region remaining rain-free during the first half of the day. With low clouds scattering out, highs will climb into the 80s and low 90s ahead of the cold front. Low-level moisture being drawn northward will pool along the front, while drier air has infiltrated the southeast. Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop across western North TX during the afternoon and evening as the front approaches. Rain chances will be highest generally from Cisco to Mineral Wells to Gainesville (60-80%) with activity becoming more isolated heading east and southeast. This is in part due to the drier air, particularly in the midlevels across much of the forecast area. As the front moves through elsewhere, a quick band of showers may develop with the lift from the front and sufficient low-level moisture, but anything beyond a period of brief, light rain is unlikely for areas east of I-35. For areas in between, including the I-35 corridor in North TX and all of western Central TX, isolated showers/storms are possible, but coverage should decrease as the front approaches, with a 30-50% chance of seeing any rain. Across our western and northwestern counties, modest instability may support a couple of stronger storms with gusty winds, but the overall threat is low and severe weather is not expected. Otherwise, as the front enters our northwestern counties late this afternoon and early evening, a sharp northerly wind shift is anticipated with temperatures dropping into the 70s and eventually into the 60s from the NW to the SE. Winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph behind the front Thursday night with gusts of 30-35 mph through midnight. After midnight, the gustier conditions are expected into Friday with a few peak gusts of 40-45 mph. Lows tonight in the wake of the front will drop into the low 50s NW to low 60s SE. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 In the wake of the cold front, gusty north winds will continue Friday as high pressure builds southward through the Plains. A strong pressure gradient across the region will support sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts mostly to 40 mph, while continued cold air advection will keep temperatures in the low 60s across the northwest to the low 70s in the Brazos Valley. Be sure to secure any Halloween decorations due to the gusty winds and use caution if driving high profile vehicles on E-W roads. Gusty winds will gradually diminish Friday night, with highs in the 60s areawide Saturday. High pressure will remain in control through the rest of the weekend, with winds gradually shifting to the east on Sunday. Temperatures will moderate slightly Sunday, climbing back into the 70s, with a return to low 80s for much of the area by Tuesday as southerly flow returns. Latest guidance has trended towards a slower return of moisture into mid to late week, with the NBM a few degrees cooler Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures should remain closer to normal early next week before highs return to the mid and upper 80s Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The biggest change in the near term is to remove the TEMPO MVFR for all D10 sites based on satellite trends, while keeping a brief TEMPO for KACT with ceilings around 2500 ft. South winds 11-15 kts will prevail much of today before the arrival of a strong cold front this evening. Latest adjustments to FROPA timing place it moving through DFW ~00Z and Waco ~03Z. Immediately behind the front, scattered to broken low-end VFR ceilings are expected, with ceilings likely lowering to MVFR as the stratus deck fills in tonight. Ceilings of ~1800-2500 ft are possible during this time, but confidence in the extent and/or duration of < 2000 ft cigs is too low to break out in any specific timeframe. Clearing will occur from the north to the south, around ~10Z for DFW sites and likely closer to 12-13Z for Waco. A northerly wind shift will occur behind the front, but the gustiest conditions will not arrive until a few hours later. Initial sustained winds will be near 12-15 kts, then increase to 18-22 kts, gusting to ~30 kts. These gusty conditions will begin ~04-06Z and persist through the day Friday, well beyond the current TAF period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 59 65 49 / 20 40 0 0 Waco 89 60 68 49 / 10 30 10 0 Paris 89 57 65 46 / 0 20 0 0 Denton 89 54 64 45 / 40 50 0 0 McKinney 88 56 64 44 / 10 40 0 0 Dallas 91 60 67 49 / 10 40 0 0 Terrell 89 58 66 47 / 10 20 0 0 Corsicana 89 60 67 48 / 0 20 0 0 Temple 90 61 70 48 / 0 40 10 0 Mineral Wells 89 55 64 43 / 50 60 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gordon LONG TERM....Gordon AVIATION...Gordon