FXUS64 KFWD 150719 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 219 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast for western North TX through Thursday night. - A strong cold front this evening/tonight will bring windy conditions on Friday. Peak wind gusts to around 40 mph are likely much of the day. - Much cooler and quiet conditions are expected this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 An active convective pattern will continue to unfold across West TX and Oklahoma early this morning with disturbances moving through the SW flow aloft, ahead of the upper level trough ejecting into the Central Plains later today. Some of this activity has reached primarily our western Red River counties this morning, with scattered showers and a storm or two expected to continue impacting our northwest counties through the morning (40-60%). For most of the area, the remainder of the overnight hours will be quiet with broken low clouds and south winds 10-15 mph. This trend should continue through the morning hours with much of the region remaining rain-free during the first half of the day. With low clouds scattering out, highs will climb into the 80s and low 90s ahead of the cold front. Low-level moisture being drawn northward will pool along the front, while drier air has infiltrated the southeast. Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop across western North TX during the afternoon and evening as the front approaches. Rain chances will be highest generally from Cisco to Mineral Wells to Gainesville (60-80%) with activity becoming more isolated heading east and southeast. This is in part due to the drier air, particularly in the midlevels across much of the forecast area. As the front moves through elsewhere, a quick band of showers may develop with the lift from the front and sufficient low-level moisture, but anything beyond a period of brief, light rain is unlikely for areas east of I-35. For areas in between, including the I-35 corridor in North TX and all of western Central TX, isolated showers/storms are possible, but coverage should decrease as the front approaches, with a 30-50% chance of seeing any rain. Across our western and northwestern counties, modest instability may support a couple of stronger storms with gusty winds, but the overall threat is low and severe weather is not expected. Otherwise, as the front enters our northwestern counties late this afternoon and early evening, a sharp northerly wind shift is anticipated with temperatures dropping into the 70s and eventually into the 60s from the NW to the SE. Winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph behind the front Thursday night with gusts of 30-35 mph through midnight. After midnight, the gustier conditions are expected into Friday with a few peak gusts of 40-45 mph. Lows tonight in the wake of the front will drop into the low 50s NW to low 60s SE. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 In the wake of the cold front, gusty north winds will continue Friday as high pressure builds southward through the Plains. A strong pressure gradient across the region will support sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts mostly to 40 mph, while continued cold air advection will keep temperatures in the low 60s across the northwest to the low 70s in the Brazos Valley. Be sure to secure any Halloween decorations due to the gusty winds and use caution if driving high profile vehicles on E-W roads. Gusty winds will gradually diminish Friday night, with highs in the 60s areawide Saturday. High pressure will remain in control through the rest of the weekend, with winds gradually shifting to the east on Sunday. Temperatures will moderate slightly Sunday, climbing back into the 70s, with a return to low 80s for much of the area by Tuesday as southerly flow returns. Latest guidance has trended towards a slower return of moisture into mid to late week, with the NBM a few degrees cooler Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures should remain closer to normal early next week before highs return to the mid and upper 80s Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions currently prevail with broken low clouds just off to the northwest and southwest of D10 and Waco at this time. Have adjusted the timing of the MVFR potential slightly from 10Z-14Z based on latest trends. South winds around 11-16 kts will continue much of today before the arrival of a cold front Thursday evening. Winds will quickly shift to the north behind the front, increasing to 15-20 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts. A few showers and storms may accompany the front, but the greatest potential for this still remains further west. FROPA timing has been adjusted slightly in line with the latest guidance, now closer to 01Z for D10 and 04Z for Waco. A deck of lower end VFR stratus is expected behind the front, but confidence in immediate arrival of MVFR cigs is low, so this trend has been adjusted slightly. Cigs of 3000-5000 ft are likely just behind the front, then lowering to MVFR for several hours before a north to south clearing occurs Friday AM. Timing and extent of these ceilings is more uncertain given the dependency on FROPA and will be monitored. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 59 65 49 / 20 40 0 0 Waco 89 60 68 49 / 10 30 10 0 Paris 89 57 65 46 / 0 30 0 0 Denton 89 54 64 45 / 40 50 0 0 McKinney 88 56 64 44 / 10 40 0 0 Dallas 91 60 67 49 / 10 40 0 0 Terrell 89 58 66 47 / 10 20 0 0 Corsicana 89 60 67 48 / 0 20 0 0 Temple 90 61 70 48 / 0 40 10 0 Mineral Wells 89 55 64 43 / 50 80 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gordon LONG TERM....Gordon AVIATION...Gordon