FXUS63 KFSD 152332
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
632 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain tapers off across northwestern Iowa through this evening.

- Strong northwest winds continue into Friday morning, with
  widespread gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Gusts around 50 mph are 
  expected across south central South Dakota.

- Moderate to high (60% or greater) chances of frost for most of
  the area Friday night/early Saturday, highest near and east of
  Interstate 29 with temperatures 32 degrees F or colder. West
  of I-29 frost may be possible with a 50% chance for 
  temperatures to fall below 35 degrees F. 

- Dry conditions and warmer temperatures return this weekend
  into early next week with highs back above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Rain is ending from northwest to southeast this afternoon as a 
northern stream upper trough and surface low drag a cold front 
through the region. At the same time the northern stream upper 
trough is merging into the southern stream trough responsible for 
the rain, deepening and strengthening the over all system. Strong 
winds have begun to develop in response to the tightening SPG and a 
strong push of CAA. Widespread gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected. 
The strongest winds will be located over central South Dakota 
where gusts to 50 mph are possible. A Wind Advisory is in effect
for this area until 4 am Friday morning. The strongest winds 
will move east overnight with the upper trough but should remain
under advisory criteria at 35 to 40 mph. Thanks to the mixy 
winds and lingering clouds overnight lows tonight will remain in
the upper 30s to low 40s.

Early Friday morning there is a chance for additional light, 
scattered rain showers as moisture wraps around the surface low 
located over Minnesota. This combined with a second strong push of 
CAA will result in the LLJ increasing to 50+ kts over east central 
South Dakota and southwest Minnesota. An area of wind gusts up to 45 
mph may be possible in southwest Minnesota. At this time, confidence 
in winds meeting advisory level criteria are too low to issue a 
headline. But this will need to be monitored through Friday morning. 
Winds gradually taper off through Friday afternoon. Highs for Friday 
will be below average for this time of year (average is low 60s) in 
the upper 40s to low 50s. Clouds break up through the afternoon 
and skies will be clear overnight with nearly calm winds. 
Radiational cooling will allow lows to fall into the mid to low 
30s. Areas along and east of I-29 are likely to see temperatures
fall to 30 degrees, therefore have issued a Freeze Watch from 
late Friday night into Saturday morning. Precautions are 
recommended for sensitive outdoor plants. Areas to the west of 
I-29 may have the potential for frost development, but 
confidence was too low at this time to issue a Frost Advisory.

An upper ridge builds into the area for the weekend. Winds turn 
southerly and WAA will boost our highs back into the upper 50s to 
mid 60s. Lows will be in the 40s. Dry and warmer than average 
conditions continue Sunday through the middle part of next week. 
Highs will warm from the the mid 60s Sunday and Monday into the low 
70s Tuesday and Wednesday. Chances for rain return for the second 
half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Rain continues move east, stretching from KOLU to KSUX to KSPW 
into central MN at the time of this discussion. Patchy MVFR
ceilings near/east of that line push east as well. However,
further north and west, additional lower VFR stratus is expected
to lower into MVFR conditions overnight. Wrap-around showers
will impact portions of the area late this evening and
overnight, but shouldstay north of a KHON to KFSD to KSLB line.
Ceilings improve through the afternoon hours Friday, with VFR
conditions for the end of the period and onward. 

Winds remain strong out of the northwest overnight, with gusts
25 to 35 knots common. Gusts around 40 knots continue across
south central SD. Expect winds and gusts to taper down slowly
during the morning hours, with gusts around 20 knots into the
afternoon and early evening.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning 
     for SDZ071.
     Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for SDZ050-057-063.
     Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for SDZ052-058-064.
MN...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning 
     for MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning 
     for IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning 
     for NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...SG