FXUS65 KFGZ 200700
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1200 AM MST Wed May 20 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions are
in store for much of the week and into the weekend, along with 
typical afternoon breezes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Aside from weak troughing over the west, quasi-
zonal flow largely remains in control through much of this week. 
Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions are expected 
through at least at least Saturday as a result. Winds look to 
generally remain light, however the aforementioned troughing will 
keep some typical spring- time afternoon breezes (20-30 mph) over 
the higher terrain. 

A weak low looks to eject off the Pacific into the southwest early 
next week. Ensemble guidance continues to signal towards an increase 
in PWATs from the resulting increase in moisture advection into 
Arizona. As of now, a few isolated afternoon showers and possibly 
thunderstorms look probable over the White Mountains this weekend, 
then potentially spreading to more of the higher terrain for Monday 
and Tuesday. However, surface moisture at this point still looks 
fairly minimal, so much of the activity at this time looks to be 
high-based in nature.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 20/06Z through Thursday 21/06Z...VFR
conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds light and variable or
terrain driven overnight, S-SW 5-15kts, gusts 20-25kts daytime.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 21/06Z through Saturday 23/06Z...VFR
conditions, no precipitation expected. Daytime winds SW-W 5-15kts
daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Dry conditions with gradually 
warming temperatures. Winds west/southwest 10-15 mph with gusts 20-
25 mph each day, along with minimum afternoon RH 5-15%.

Friday through Sunday....Continued dry conditions with warming 
temperatures. Winds west/southwest 5-15 mph each day. Minimum 
afternoon RH 5-15% on Friday, rising to 10-20% over the weekend.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff