FXUS65 KFGZ 190700
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1200 AM MST Tue May 19 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions are
in store for much of the week, along with typical afternoon breezes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Quasi-zonal flow largely remains in control through
much of this week. As a result, gradually warming temperatures 
and dry conditions are expected through at least at least Saturday.
Winds look to generally remain light, however weak troughing will
keep some typical spring-time afternoon breezes (20-30 mph) over 
the higher terrain. 

A weak low looks to eject off the Pacific into the southwest early 
next week. Ensemble guidance continues to signal towards an increase 
in PWATs from the resulting increase in moisture advection into 
Arizona. As of now, a few isolated afternoon showers and possibly 
thunderstorms look probable over the White Mountains this weekend, 
then potentially spreading to more of the higher terrain on Monday. 
Surface moisture at this point still looks fairly minimal, so much 
of the activity at this time looks to be high-based in nature.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 19/06Z through Wednesday 20/06Z...VFR
conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds light and variable or
terrain driven overnight. Becoming S-SW 5-15 kts, gusts 20kts
after 15-18Z, light and variable again after 03Z.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 20/06Z through Friday 22/06Z...VFR conditions,
no precipitation expected. Winds SW-W 5-15kts, gusts 20-25kts
daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Gradually turning warmer. 
Winds west/southwest 10-15 mph, with occasional afternoon gusts of 
20-30 mph each day. Minimum afternoon RH 10-20% today, falling to 5-
15% on Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday....Continued dry conditions with warming 
temperatures. Winds west/southwest 5-15 mph each day, along with 
minimum afternoon RH 5-15%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff