FXUS65 KFGZ 162018
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
118 PM MST Fri Oct 16 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and windy weather continues through this 
afternoon. Less breezy on Saturday, then a weather system brings 
chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night through 
Sunday. This active pattern continues through most of next week 
with continued daily shower chances, occasional gusty winds, and 
below normal daytime temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A strong easterly gradient is still present early
this afternoon. This has brought very gusty east to northeast 
winds over the past 24 hours, especially downwind (west/southwest)
of terrain features in Yavapai and Coconino counties, as well as 
in the Little Colorado River Valley. Peak gusts up to 40-50 mph 
are possible through the rest of the afternoon, and a wind 
Advisory remains in effect for portions of Northern and Central 
Arizona through 6 PM MST today. Winds are expected to gradually 
relax tonight through Saturday as the gradient weakens, however 
locally gusty winds 30-40 mph will remain possible overnight. 
Other than the winds, expect cooler than normal temperatures and 
mostly dry conditions through Saturday afternoon. 

An upper low currently spinning off the coast of Baja California 
will slowly push inland across Arizona this weekend, and will be 
accompanied by another surge of moisture. Upper level clouds start
to encroach our area on Saturday afternoon, then chances for 
showers and thunderstorms return Saturday evening through Sunday- 
Monday. Most ensemble guidance keeps rainfall accumulations light,
but some localized accumulations up to 0.5'' will be possible.

Into next week, we remain in a highly active pattern. A deep trough 
is forecast to strengthen and dive along the California coast on 
Tuesday, then eventually propagate past Arizona later in the week.
Long term ensemble guidance hints that this will bring a deeper 
moisture surge than this weekend, however there is still plenty of
uncertainty on the exact timing/trajectory. The current forecast 
brings daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, peaking on 
Wednesday and Thursday. Besides the precipitation, expect a return
to gusty winds by the middle of next week and continued cooler 
than normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 16/18Z through Saturday 17/18Z...VFR expected.
NE-E winds 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts through 02Z, then 
decreasing to 10-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 17/18Z through Monday 19/18Z...Mainly VFR 
expected. E winds 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts on Saturday,  
becoming light and variable through the end of the period. 
Increasing clouds on Saturday, with ISO-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA possible 
Saturday night onward. Brief MVFR in heavier showers.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday through Sunday...Cool temperatures with 
east through southeast winds around 10-20 mph on Saturday, becoming 
light on Sunday. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms 
Saturday evening through Sunday over the higher terrain. Minimum RH 
is 15-35% on Saturday, increasing to 40-70% on Sunday. 

Monday through Wednesday...Increasing chances for showers and 
thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday. South winds 5-15 mph on 
Monday, becoming south-southeast 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph on 
Tuesday, increasing to 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph on Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST /7 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ004-
006>008-012>015-037-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewandowski
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff