FXUS63 KFGF 230417
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1117 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...Synopsis...

Northwest flow prevails through the forecast period, with the 
passage of several shortwaves. A weak system moves into central and 
southeast North Dakota on Sunday, with low chances for a passing 
afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Best chances will be further west, 
however. A better chance for showers and storms will occur late 
Monday into Tuesday, when a stronger shortwave moves southeast out 
of Manitoba and into northwest and north central Minnesota. This 
will bring us a chance for isolated severe thunderstorms late Monday 
afternoon into Monday evening. Moving into Tuesday, parts of 
northwest Minnesota could see an additional round of showers as weak 
shortwave activity continues. H5 ridging over the western CONUS is 
expected to flatten, thus weakening our northwest flow heading into 
the second half of next week. Ensemble guidance suggests additional 
rain chances as we head into Friday and Saturday, but will 
ultimately depend on the speed and progression of antecedent 
shortwave activity and shifts in the overall pattern.

...Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Late Monday...

There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday 
afternoon into the evening as a moderately strong shortwave pushes 
across the area. Steep low and mid level lapse rates will be in 
place during peak heating, with a cold front approaching from the 
northwest. Modeled surface CAPE ranges from 1500 to 2500 J/Kg 
across various ensembles and deterministic NAM/NAM Nest. Low to
mid level shear is marginal, especially further ahead of the 
cold front. Hodographs, however, are relatively straight and 
have a degree of consistency in model soundings. If storms are 
able to form, there should be just enough shear to allow a 
mention of supercells, with a chance for splitting supercells or
hybrid clusters. In a higher impact scenario, supercells form, 
bringing potential hazards including wind gusts upwards of 75 
mph and large hail to the size of golf balls. If atmospheric 
support shifts more towards clusters, the potential hazards 
could include wind gusts upwards of 70 mph and hail up to the 
size of ping pong balls. Alternatively, in a lower end scenario,
storms form later in the evening and severe storms become less 
likely, but could still support elevated hail producing storms 
during the late evening and overnight.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Cirrus moving in from the west, with all sites remaining VFR
throughout the period. Winds will become light and variable, and
can't completely rule out some patchy ground fog. However, not a
very strong signal and will not include in the TAFs. Winds will
begin to increase out of the southeast for the ND airports
during the day tomorrow. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...JR