FXUS63 KFGF 192315 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 615 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freeze Warning for all areas tonight except west central Minnesota (Frost Advisory) with temperatures widely falling to the low 30s and upper 20s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...Synopsis... Upper trough axis currently over the Red River Valley will pull east into the western Great Lakes tonight. The high pressure centered over the western Plains currently will shift into the upper midwest tonight. Another trough will be digging into the Rockies tomorrow night into Thursday, so westerly flow will quickly shift back to southwesterly. The upper trough to our west splits into a northern and southern branch, and ensemble members vary a bit on how exactly they handle it as it moves east. Most solutions do push the trough east over the weekend, with ridging building into the Plains by Memorial Day. Details such as precipitation timing and placement with the trough are low confidence, but there seems to be good agreement on below average temperatures becoming near to above average by the end of the period. ...Frost and freeze headlines... Clouds should clear out as the upper trough moves east, and with high pressure overhead, winds will become light and variable overnight. There will be a good setup for radiational cooling, and dew points currently in the low 30s over southern Manitoba should be down in our area by tonight. Temps should drop to near or below the freezing mark in most locations, with a 60 to 90 percent chance of 32 or lower for much of eastern ND into northwestern MN. Probabilities of less than 32 are much lower for some reason in west central MN from Elbow Lake up to Detroit Lakes, with chances 20 percent or less.Kept Grant, Otter Tail, and western Becker as frost advisory but have the rest of the CWA in a Freeze Warning. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR ceilings continue to lift this evening with the remaining impacted sites reaching VFR by 9pm. Winds becoming light tonight by midnight before increasing to 5-10kts by 7-10am from the south. Wednesday afternoon gusts of 25-30kts in DVL but low confidence in over 30kts. There is a low 20% chance for some fog overnight in TVF from 08z to 13z but would like to see guidance be a little more consistent before adding it to the taf. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ001>009- 013>017-022>024-028-029-032. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ027-030- 031-040. && $$ DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...TT