FXUS63 KFGF 191912
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
212 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures drop to near freezing across all of eastern North
  Dakota and western Minnesota tonight into Wednesday morning.
  Freeze warning out for all but parts of west central
  Minnesota, which have a frost advisory. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...Synopsis...

Upper trough axis currently over the Red River Valley will pull
east into the western Great Lakes tonight. The high pressure
centered over the western Plains currently will shift into the
upper midwest tonight. Another trough will be digging into the 
Rockies tomorrow night into Thursday, so westerly flow will 
quickly shift back to southwesterly. The upper trough to our
west splits into a northern and southern branch, and ensemble
members vary a bit on how exactly they handle it as it moves
east. Most solutions do push the trough east over the weekend,
with ridging building into the Plains by Memorial Day. Details
such as precipitation timing and placement with the trough are
low confidence, but there seems to be good agreement on below
average temperatures becoming near to above average by the end
of the period. 

...Frost and freeze headlines...

Clouds should clear out as the upper trough moves east, and with
high pressure overhead, winds will become light and variable
overnight. There will be a good setup for radiational cooling,
and dew points currently in the low 30s over southern Manitoba
should be down in our area by tonight. Temps should drop to near
or below the freezing mark in most locations, with a 60 to 90
percent chance of 32 or lower for much of eastern ND into 
northwestern MN. Probabilities of less than 32 are much lower
for some reason in west central MN from Elbow Lake up to Detroit
Lakes, with chances 20 percent or less.Kept Grant, Otter Tail, 
and western Becker as frost advisory but have the rest of the 
CWA in a Freeze Warning. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Lingering MVFR ceilings and some scattered light
showers/sprinkles will continue into early afternoon. Showers
could impact a few of the TAF sites, but mostly just brief light
rain and not any reductions to visibility. Should see some 
improvement to VFR by late afternoon or evening, then clearing 
out completely later tonight. Winds that are gusting above 20 
kts at some airports will diminish, becoming light and variable 
overnight. The ND airports should see winds start to pick up out
of the south to southeast by tomorrow mid-day.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-028-029-032.
     Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ027-030-
     031-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR