FXUS63 KFGF 170431
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1131 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing temperatures are forecast for portions of west 
  central MN tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

...Synopsis...

Yesterdays cold front has left us with quite cool temperatures 
today, as many locations are only in the 40s as of early this 
afternoon. The surface ridge axis is now shifting through eastern 
ND, quickly propagating to the east. This has resulted in sunny
skies area wide. These clear skies will last into the 
overnight, bringing widespread low temperatures in the 30s. The
coldest areas will be in portions of west central MN, where a 
freeze warning has been issued for temperatures as low as 30 
degrees. 

Over the weekend, upper level ridging will build in. In the low 
levels, a much warmer airmass will advect in from the west, leading 
to above average temperatures. Highs will be in the upper 50s 
to mid 60s over the weekend. Temperatures of these values (or 
even slightly warmer by Wednesday) will persist all the way into
the latter portions of next week. The NBM shows high 
predictability in this long stretch of dry/warm weather, with 
only a 2 to 4 degree high temperature spread between the 25th 
and 75th percentiles each day. This agreement makes sense 
conceptually due to a blocking pattern setting up with ridging 
over the central US and troughs/lows more or less over each of 
CONUS's coasts. There are signs late in the week of a transition
to southwesterly flow as the western trough digs and starts to 
propagate eastward. However, how this evolves remains uncertain,
so at this timeframe the forecast features a smattering of low 
end precipitation chances starting Friday. 

...Freeze Tonight...

The coldest temperatures tonight are forecasted to be in west 
central MN, which will be in the closest proximity to the 
southeastward propagating surface ridge. Elsewhere winds pick up 
quite rapidly after sunset, increasing mixing, likely keeping us a 
couple of degrees warmer then we otherwise would be. Due to
higher winds across the rest of the FA, temperatures, while
chilly, should remain above freezing in the mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected across eastern ND and northwest MN
due to a much drier air mass in place through the TAF period.
Winds are increasing from the south and southwest due to 
increasing pressure gradient as surface high pressure slides 
southeast. A low level jet (35-45kt) is currently moving into
northeast ND and will progress across the region through the 
morning hours Saturday, resulting in a period of low level wind 
shear. Winds periodically gusting to 25kt will be expected
through the TAF period (particularly during the daytime period
during peak mixing).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ029>032-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...DJR