FXUS64 KEWX 160557 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1257 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1256 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A strong cold front moves through the area through daybreak. Rain chances diminish through the overnight hours and end this morning. - Wind Advisory for all of South Central Texas today with sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts between 40-50 mph. - Cooler air ushers into the area and remains through the weekend, then a warming trend begins. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong cold front is moving across the area with its impact first seen in the northwest portion of the forecast area and spreading south to southeast through daybreak. Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms continue across the Edwards Plateau early this morning where some pockets of heavy rainfall have been observed. Drier and windy conditions behind the front will erode this activity through the morning. A Flood Watch remains in effect at the time of this AFD issuance but could be cancelled a few hours early. Post frontal conditions will be evident by a gusty north wind ushering in cooler air. Northerly wind from 20-30 mph with gusts to 40-50 mph are expected to continue into the early evening. A Wind Advisory is in effect through 7pm to account for these gusty winds. Cloudy morning skies begin to break up slightly in the afternoon with high temperatures today from the low 60s to low 70s. Windy conditions will make it feel even cooler. Wind eases in the west but remains gusty from the Hill Country eastward overnight through Saturday morning. During this time, forecast wind speeds will be more 15-25 mph with gusts to around 35 mph which coincides with the expiration of the Wind Advisory. Lows overnight cool into the low to mid 40s over the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country into the mid 40s to low 50s elsewhere. Breezy wind eases through the day on Saturday. Less clouds are expected this day with highs mainly in the 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The coolest temperatures of the period are forecast Saturday night into Sunday morning lows from the low and mid 40s over the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau to the mid 40s to around 50 degrees elsewhere. Light wind and mild temperatures from the middle 60s to middle 70s are expected Sunday, then a warming trend returns for the week with daily highs and lows creeping back to above normal levels by Wednesday. Dry conditions continue with possibly some low rain chances returning at the very end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Concerns through the early morning hours will be centered on the arrival of a strong cold front along with some convection, primarily out west along the Rio Grande. Based on radar trends and incoming hi- res models, we will continue with prevailing RA in low end MVFR vsbys at DRT through 09Z, with trends easing back to -RA 09-12Z. We have also removed TSRA at DRT as lightning trends continue to trend downward. The arrival of the cold front has only been adjusted slightly based on recent observational trends. Some light showers may briefly develop along the front into the I-35 corridor. We have shortened the window for TEMPO -SHRA based on radar trends and hi- res guidance. Gusty north winds are still expected through today and little change was made over the previous forecast. Some MVFR cigs will also filter in behind the front, but conditions should trend back to MVFR by late morning/early afternoon as much drier air in the lower levels moves in from the north. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 69 50 68 48 / 20 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 70 49 68 45 / 20 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 69 50 68 46 / 20 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 65 46 65 44 / 20 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 67 49 66 47 / 60 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 68 48 67 44 / 20 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 70 49 69 46 / 20 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 70 49 69 46 / 20 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 71 51 70 47 / 20 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 70 50 68 49 / 20 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 72 52 69 49 / 20 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228. Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ183. && $$ SHORT TERM...27 LONG TERM....27 AVIATION...Platt