FXUS64 KEPZ 240433 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1033 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 225 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Above normal temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas through the week ahead. Lowland highs will range upper 90s to 105, which will approach daily records. - Very limited thunderstorm chances in the mountains for today and Monday. Dry elsewhere. - Chances for thunderstorms will improve Thursday into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Not much has changed in the forecast. Upper level high pressure will be the driving force behind our weather through at least the coming weekend. The upper level ridge will begin to drift into southern New Mexico on Monday through Wednesday. That will be when we will see our hottest temperatures of the week. A heat advisory is out for the lower Rio Grande Valley into Hudspeth County for Monday afternoon and evening. On Tuesday the upper level ridge will be directly over southern New Mexico, so we will likely have to extended and possible expand the advisory. The ridge drifts only a little to the west of Wednesday, so we may still need another round of heat advisories for Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday and Friday, the upper level ridge will be centered to our west in eastern Arizona. This will allow a little moisture to slip into the region from the east. The circulation around the upper level ridge may bring a vort max across the area so most of the area will have at least a slight chance for rain on Thursday. High temperatures both days will drop a few degrees, but most of the lowlands will continue to see triple digit heat. For the weekend, the upper level ridge will recenter itself over central New Mexico, that ridge position will again limit our rain chances which will mainly be confined to area mountains. Triple digit lowland heat looks to continue next weekend. No relief from this late summer heat as the extended models continue to show the upper level ridge anchored over the desert southwest through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Upper level high pressure will continue to keep our ceilings unlimited tonight and through the day on Monday. OUr winds tonight will be light and then by Monday afternoon we will see light south or southeast winds. KDMN may have a few hours of low end gusty winds. The light winds will continue into Monday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 225 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Hot and dry conditions will persist through the weekend, with very low chances for a pop-up shower or thunderstorm in the Gila and Sacramentos for the remainder of the afternoon and Monday afternoon. Isolated dry lightning strikes are possible. Minimum RH values will drop just below 10 percent in the lowlands the next few afternoons, while the forested high elevations hold onto 15 to 25%. Winds will remain light. An uptick in thunderstorms, mainly in the higher terrain, is expected Wednesday, and another tick higher Thursday, as the upper ridge drifts west of the area again, opening us up to weak disturbances aloft dropping in from the north. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 74 102 76 104 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 68 99 68 102 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 68 101 69 103 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 72 100 73 102 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 55 78 56 78 / 0 0 0 10 Truth or Consequences 71 99 72 101 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 64 94 65 96 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 69 102 70 104 /0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 70 100 70 102 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 75 102 76 105 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 70 102 71 104 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 74 106 75 108 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 70 96 70 98 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 72 102 73 105 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 71 101 72 103 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 75 103 76 105 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 70 101 71 103 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 70 104 71 106 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 72 102 74 104 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 68 100 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 60 91 61 91 / 0 0 0 10 Mescalero 58 89 59 90 / 0 0 0 10 Timberon 57 87 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 62 91 63 92 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 69 99 70 100 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 68 100 69 102 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 59 92 59 93 / 0 0 0 10 Hurley 65 97 66 99 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 67 101 68 103 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 64 97 65 99 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 67 96 68 98 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 70 101 71 103 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 69 100 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 68 99 69 101 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 65 94 67 97 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...15-Brice